MACRO OUTLOOK: Busy Fed Communications From Fed Hawks And Doves Next Week
Feb-14 19:41
The coming week’s U.S. data schedule is relatively light, due in part to Monday’s federal government holiday.
- Aside from the weekly jobless claims release, the main points of focus will be preliminary February PMIs, regional Fed manufacturing surveys (Empire, Philly), various housing indicators (starts/permits/existing home sales), with the final UMichigan consumer survey eyed for any revision of surprisingly strong 4.3% 1-year inflation expectations.
- Otherwise, the week will be mainly given over to Fed communications: the roster includes Philly’s Harker, SF’s Daly, and Govs Bowman, Kugler, and Jefferson.
- But we will be most interested to hear Gov Waller’s take on the latest data, as he has been one of the more dovish members of late, and St Louis’s Musalem – a hawk and 2025 FOMC voter - who hasn’t discussed his monetary outlook since the January meeting.
- We also get the January FOMC meeting minutes - we preview them separately.
| Date | ET | Impact | Event |
| 17/02/2025 | 0930 | Philadelphia Fed's Pat Harker | |
| 17/02/2025 | 1020 | Fed Governor Michelle Bowman | |
| 17/02/2025 | 1800 | Fed Governor Christopher Waller | |
| 18/02/2025 | 0830 | ** | Empire State Manufacturing Survey |
| 18/02/2025 | 1000 | ** | NAHB Home Builder Index |
| 18/02/2025 | 1020 | San Francisco Fed's Mary Daly | |
| 18/02/2025 | 1300 | Fed Governor Michael Barr | |
| 19/02/2025 | 0830 | *** | Housing Starts / Building Permits |
| 19/02/2025 | 1400 | FOMC Minutes | |
| 19/02/2025 | 1700 | Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson | |
| 20/02/2025 | 0830 | *** | Jobless Claims |
| 20/02/2025 | 0830 | ** | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index |
| 20/02/2025 | 0935 | Chicago Fed's Austan Goolsbee | |
| 20/02/2025 | 1205 | St. Louis Fed's Alberto Musalem | |
| 20/02/2025 | 1430 | Fed Governor Michael Barr | |
| 20/02/2025 | 1700 | Fed Governor Adriana Kugler | |
| 21/02/2025 | 0945 | *** | S&P Global Manuf/Services Index (Flash) |
| 21/02/2025 | 0945 | *** | S&P Global Services Index (flash) |
| 21/02/2025 | 1000 | *** | NAR existing home sales |
| 21/02/2025 | 1000 | ** | U. Mich. Survey of Consumers (final) |
| 21/02/2025 | 1130 | Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson |
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PIPELINE: Late Equities Roundup: Bank, Chips & Media Stocks Lead Post-CPI Rally
Jan-15 19:26
- Stocks surged higher Wednesday after core inflation data slowed for December. After a couple rounds of profit taking major indexes looked to test session highs again in late trade with the DJIA up up 706.28 points (1.66%) at 43225.25, S&P E-Minis up 105 points (1.79%) at 5987.5, Nasdaq up 445.2 points (2.3%) at 19489.8.
- Financials, Communication Services and Information Technology sectors continued to outperform in late trade, banks led gainers after better than expected earnings were reported by Blackrock +4.72%, Bank of NY Melon +7.97%, Wells Fargo +7.19%, JP Morgan +1.85%, Goldman Sachs +6.03% and Citigroup +7.33% this morning.
- Interactive media and entertainment shares helped the Communication Services sector rebound after declining the last couple sessions: Meta +4.27%, Alphabet +3.10%, Netflix gained 2.37%. Same for IT with semiconductor shares trading stronger despite ongoing curbs on China exports: Micron Technologies +6.00%, Qualcomm +3.5%, Advanced Micro Devices +3.38%, Nvidia +2.91%.
- On the flipside, Health Care and Consumer Staples sectors underperformed in late trade, pharmaceuticals weighing on the former with Viatris -2.94%, AbbVie -2.40%, Charles River Labs -1.56%. Food manufacturers weighed on the Consumer Staples sector: Hershey -3.01%, Conagra -1.98% and Kroger -1.3%.
US: FED Beige Book
Jan-15 19:14
- Excerpt from the latest Beige Bookt: "Economic activity increased slightly to moderately across the twelve Federal Reserve Districts in late November and December. Consumer spending moved up moderately, with most Districts reporting strong holiday sales that exceeded expectations. Vehicle sales grew modestly. Construction activity decreased overall, with several Districts indicating that high costs for materials and financing were weighing on growth."
- On Labor Markets: "Employment ticked up on balance, with six Districts reporting a slight increase and six reporting no change. Contacts in several service industries, notably healthcare, continued to see job growth."
- On Prices: "Prices increased modestly overall, with growth rates ranging from flat to moderate."
GLOBAL POLITICAL RISK: CEOs Worried About Risk Of Intensified Trade Wars
Jan-15 18:51
A new annual survey from the Conference Board has found that global CEOs are increasingly concerned about trade wars and a decoupling of China from international trade systems.
- The 2025 survey shows that, according to at least 500 global CEOs, business leaders report their primary concern is intensified trade wars, brought into focus by hardline rhetoric ahead of US President-elect Donald Trump's return to office.
- The survey shows that the fourth highest concern of the 2024 survey - the risk of military confrontation between Russia and NATO - has fallen out of the top 10 concerns.
- The survey also shows that US national debt and deficits is the 5th highest concern, likely an acknowledgement that an ideologically fractured Republican Congress must raise the US federal debt ceiling by summer.
- Axios notes on the survey: "Geopolitical worries don't seem to have dampened broader economic optimism. Last year, 55% of U.S. CEOs said the risk of an economic downturn or recession would be a high-impact issue last year. This year, that fell to less than 40%."
Figure 1: Top Geopolitical Risks for 2025, According to Global CEOs
Source: Conference Board, Axios
