US DATA: Business Net Saving At Highest Since Mid-2021 In Q4 [1/2]
Mar-27 18:35
- Today’s Q4 detailed national accounts data showed a modicum of an improvement to its twin deficits at the end of 2024 although it doesn’t materially alter trends of large, persistent deficits.
- General government net borrowing narrowed from 7.9% GDP to a still huge 7.6% GDP for a non-recessionary period, whilst the rest of world surplus (i.e. the current account deficit) narrowed from 4.1% GDP to 3.6% GDP.
- The combination saw the private sector surplus increase two tenths to 4.0% GDP for its highest since 3Q23 after four quarters between 3.8-3.9% GDP.
- One notable private sector detail was the domestic business net lending rate climbing from 1.8% to 2.3% GDP for its highest since 2Q21.
- This could be businesses holding back investment decisions waiting for clarity under the second Trump administration following the November election, although businesses had been running higher than usual surpluses in recent years. These surpluses averaged 1.5% GDP through 2023-24 compared to ~0.5% GDP in pre-pandemic years.
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GBPUSD TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains In Play
Feb-25 18:30
- RES 4: 1.2811 High Dec 6 ‘24
- RES 3: 1.2831 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 1.2767 50.0% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.2691 High Feb 24
- PRICE: 1.2654 @ 16:42 GMT Feb 25
- SUP 1: 1.2563 Low Feb 19
- SUP 2: 1.2522 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.2440 Low Feb 13
- SUP 4: 1.2333 Low Feb 11 and a key support
A bull cycle in GBPUSD remains in play and the pair is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. Fresh short-term gains confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the current sequence of higher highs and higher lows. An extension would strengthen the bullish condition and open 1.2767, the 50.0% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg. Initial firm support to watch is 1.2522, the 50-day EMA.
PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Issuance: $5B Citigroup 3Pt Launched
Feb-25 18:26
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 02/25 $5B #Citigroup $2.25B 4NC3 +70, $750M 4NC3 SOFR, $2B 31NC30 +105
- 02/25 $1.8B #Southern Co 30NC10 6.375%
- 02/25 $1B #Dow Chemical $400M 10Y +105, $600M 30Y +140
- 02/25 $750M #KeyCorp 6NC5 +98
- 02/25 $500M #Emerson Electric WNG 10Y +70
- 02/25 $Benchmark State Street Corp 3Y +45, 5Y +60, 11NC10 +85
- 02/25 $Benchmark Caterpillar 3Y +55a, 3Y SOFR
US: FED Reverse Repo Operation
Feb-25 18:21
RRP usage rebounds to an even $96.0B this afternoon from $76.818B on Monday. Compares to Friday, February 14 low of $58.770B - the lowest level since mid-April 2021. The number of counterparties at 36 from 30 prior.
