TURKEY: Business Groups Anticipating New Credit Package for SMEs

• RES 4: $41.064 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
• RES 3: $40.285 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
• RES 2: $40.000 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $39.655 - 1.500 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing    
• PRICE: $39.371 @ 08:15 BST Jul 23  
• SUP 1: $37.464 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $36.073 - 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: $35.285 - Low Jun 24  
• SUP 4: $33.967 - Low Jun 3

Trend signals in Silver are unchanged and continue to point north. THis week’s gains reinforce bullish conditions - the metal has traded above resistance at $39.132, the Jul 14 high. The break confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on $39.655 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial support to watch lies at $37.464, the 20-day EMA.

Note that JGB futures haven’t reacted to Japanese PM Ishiba’s pushback against reports that he is set to step down, with ongoing Japanese fiscal challenges, the poorly received 40-Year JGB auction and news of the Japanese-U.S. trade deal continuing to dominate.

• Contract operates just above Tokyo lows, -3 at 137.59. Support at the July 16 low (137.70) has been breached, strengthening the bearish technical theme, switching focus to a cluster of Fibonacci support levels that are some way below prevailing levels.

Westpac continue to recommend a long basket of AUD, CAD, JPY and EUR vs. USD, looking for “structural medium term USD downside risks to continue to unfold more evenly and consistently against a mix of both more liquid safe havens (the clean USD alternatives) and “riskier” business cycle currencies (the less clean alternatives)”.

• The basket weights are AUD: 18.04%, CAD: 33.74%, EUR: 25.37% & JPY: 22.85%, the (inverse) of the realised volatility of each pair vs the USD over the past 3 months.