TURKEY: Business Group Leader Sees 10ppts of More Rate Cuts This Year

No fresh headlines as core global FI futures firm and equity index futures tick away from best levels. Bunds close the opening gap lower, while TY futures trade to the highest level seen since Wednesday.

• Note that Euro Stoxx 50 futures were not able to test early July highs, before a pullback from best levels accelerated around the cash equity open.

• RES 4: $41.064 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
• RES 3: $40.285 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
• RES 2: $40.000 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $39.655 - 1.500 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing    
• PRICE: $38.301 @ 08:12 BST Jul 28  
• SUP 1: $37.809 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $36.382 - 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: $35.285 - Low Jun 24  
• SUP 4: $33.967 - Low Jun 3

Trend signals in Silver are unchanged, they remain bullish. Gains early last week reinforce current trend conditions - the metal traded above resistance at $39.132, the Jul 14 high. The break confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on $39.655 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial support to watch lies at $37.809, the 20-day EMA.

Little net movement in EUR STIRs as core global FI futures have pared the initial downtick that followed weekend confirmation of the U.S.-EU trade deal.

• Ongoing uncertainty surrounding Sino-U.S. relations, lower expected inflation outcomes stemming from the weekend deal and continued headline uncertainty limit the initial weakness in bonds, even with equities rallying and growth risks lessened.
• Euribor futures flat to +3.5. ERZ5 registered the lowest level since April on Friday, while ERZ6 respected May lows. Early flow of note comes from the previously covered seller of the ERH9/M9 spread.
• ECB-dated OIS shows 15.5bp of easing through year-end, before pricing just under 20bp of cuts through March, representing ~60% and ~80% odds of an interest rate cut being enacted through the respective junctures.
• Comments from ECB’s Escriva due at 08:30 London/09:30 CET.
• Little else of note on the regional calendar, which will leave focus on wider macro matters (any ongoing adjustment the U.S.-EU trade deal and Sino-U.S. discussions in Stockholm).
• Looking further ahead, the ECB’s inflation expectations survey (Tuesday), wage tracking data & (Wednesday), Eurozone GDP (Wednesday) & Eurozone HICP (Friday) present the major regional releases of note through the week.