EURJPY TECHS: Bulls Remains In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 160.66 2.382 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
- RES 3: 160.00 Psychological handle
- RES 2: 159.92 2.236 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
- RES 1: 159.36 Intraday high
- PRICE: 159.06 @ 06:58 BST Aug 17
- SUP 1: 157.30/156.35 20-day EMA / Low Aug 8
- SUP 2: 155.42 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 151.42 Low Jul 28 and key support
- SUP 4: 150.16 38.2% retracement of the Jan 3 - Jul 21 bull cycle
EURJPY continues to trade at its recent highs. Key resistance at 158.05, the Jul 21 high, has recently been breached. This confirms a continuation of the medium-term uptrend and opens 159.92, a Fibonacci projection ahead of the 160.00 psychological handle. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode condition, reflecting a rising trend. Initial firm support is 157.30, the 20-day EMA.
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EUROZONE ISSUANCE: EGB Supply
Germany, Greece, Spain and France all look to issue this week. We pencil in gross nominal issuance of E29.0bln, down a little from E31.1bln last week.
- Germany will kick off issuance for the week this morning with E6bln of the new 3.10% Sep-25 Schatz (ISIN: DE000BU22023) on offer.
- Greece will look to hold a GGB auction tomorrow with the bond on offer to be announced this afternoon. At auction this year Greece has sold benchmark 10/15/20-year GGBs so far.
- Also tomorrow, Germany will return to the market to hold a 30-year Bund auction. E1bln of the 0% Aug-52 Bund (ISIN: DE0001102572) will be on offer alongside E1.5bln of the 1.80% Aug-53 Bund (ISIN: DE0001102614).
EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: W/C July 17, 2023
The ESM, Portugal and the EU are all due to sell bills this week while Germany, the Netherlands and France all came to the market yesterday. We expect issuance to be E15.3bln in the week, down from E23.8bln last week.
- Today, the ESM will look to sell up to E1.1bln of the new 6-month Jan 25, 2024 bills
- Tomorrow, Portugal will look to sell E1.00-1.25bln of the 6-month Jan 19, 2024 BT and the new 12-month Jul 19, 2024 BT.
- Also tomorrow, the EU will look to sell up to E1bln of each of the 3-month Oct 6, 2023 EU-bill and the 6-month Jan 12, 2024 EU-bill.
LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)
| Date | UK | Period | Event |
| 19-Jul | 0700 | Jun | Consumer inflation report / Producer prices |
| 19-Jul | 0930 | May | ONS House Price Index |
| 19-Jul | 1700 | --- | BoE Ramsden speech on QT - Money Macro & Fin. Society |
| 21-Jul | 0001 | Jul | Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence |
| 21-Jul | 0700 | Jun | Public Sector Finances / Retail sales |
| 24-Jul | 0930 | Jul | S&P Global Manuf./Services/Composite PMI flash |
| 25-Jul | 1100 | Jul | CBI Industrial Trends |
| 27-Jul | 1100 | Jul | CBI Distributive Trades |
| 31-Jul | 0930 | Jun | BOE M4 / BOE Lending to Individuals |
| 01-Aug | 0001 | Jul | BRC Monthly Shop Price Index |
| 03-Aug | --- | Jul | BOE DMP Survey |
| 03-Aug | 1200 | Aug | Bank Of England Interest Rate |
| 04-Aug | 0930 | Jul | IHS Markit/CIPS Construction PMI |
| 08-Aug | 0001 | Jul | BRC-KPMG Shop Sales Monitor |
| 11-Aug | 0700 | Jun | GDP / Services / Production / Trade / Construction |
