SILVER TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat

New 7-year Nov-32 BTP:

• Guidance: BTPS+10 Area. Benchmark: BTPS 3.25% 07/15/32
• Size: Benchmark. MNI pencils in E5-10bln (with risks skewed towards E7-8bln)
• Coupon: Semi-annual, act/act, short first

New 30-year Oct-55 BTP:

• Guidance: BTPS+9 Area. Benchmark: BTPS 4.3% 10/01/54
• Size: E5bln WNG.
• Coupon: Semi-annual, act/act, short first

Across both lines:

• Issuer: Italy Buoni Poliennali Del Tesoro (BTPS)
• Exp. Ratings: Baa3/BBB+/BBB
• Format: Reg S, dematerialized, 144A eligible
• Settlement: Sep 9, 2025 (t+5)
• Denoms: 1k x 1k
• Bookrunners: BBVA, Citi, DB (B&D), JPM, MS, Nomura
• Timing: May price today.

As per Bloomberg and MEF, with MNI colour added.

• Keep a close eye on Bund here, that 2.80% Yield level has moved up to 128.68.
• Immediate support is at 128.84, and looking at the chart the contract did print a 128.64 low on the 15th August, so that 128.68/128.64 will be the intial key level.
• Gilt is getting dragged on the Open, immediate Obvious support is at the 90.00 figure, testing right now.
• Next support to watch is at 89.80, this equates to 4.80%.
• A little surprising to see the Pound suddenly falling, in part a function of the Dollar bid as Yields edge higher, and best selling volume goes through on CME (see chart).

• RES 4: 92.06 High Aug 14 
• RES 3: 91.45 High Aug 15      
• RES 2: 91.24 High Aug 18 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 90.84 High Aug 28 / 29 
• PRICE: 90.02 @ 08:07 BST Sep 2
• SUP 1: 90.00/89.99/ Psychological round number / Low Apr 9 (cont)
• SUP 2: 89.68 Low Jan 15 (cont)
• SUP 3: 89.46 1.382 proj of the Aug 21 - 27 - 28 price swing   
• SUP 4: 89.22 1.618 proj of the Aug 21 - 27 - 28 price swing      

A bear cycle in Gilt futures is in play and a fresh cycle low Monday, and again today, reinforces current conditions. The continuation of the bear leg has resulted in a test of the 90.00 handle. Clearance of this level would strengthen the downtrend. This would pave the way for an extension towards 89.68, the Jab 15 low (cont). Initial resistance is at 90.84, the Aug 28 and 29 high.