GOLD TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: $3987.3 - 2.236 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing
- RES 3: $3909.4 - 2.000 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing
- RES 2: $3900.0 Round number resistance
- RES 1: $3875.5 - Intraday high
- PRICE: $3857.1 @ 07:24 BST Oct 1
- SUP 1: $3760.9 - Low Sep 29
- SUP 2: $3682.7 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: $3628.1 - Low Sep 18
- SUP 4: $3548.7 - 50-day EMA
The trend condition in Gold is unchanged and a bull cycle remains in play. The yellow metal has traded to a fresh cycle high this week, confirming a resumption of the primary uptrend. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on $3909.4, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, support to watch lies at $3646.3, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.
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WTI TECHS: (V5) Bearish Threat
- RES 4: $77.85 - 2.794 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 3: $75.65 - 2.500 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 2: $74.25 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: $66.56/69.36 - High Aug 4 / High Jul 30 and key resistance
- PRICE: $64.00 @ 07:14 BST Sep 1
- SUP 1: $61.29 - Low Aug 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: $57.71 - Low May 30
- SUP 3: $54.80 - Low May 5
- SUP 4: $54.03 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
A bear cycle in WTI futures remains intact and the latest recovery appears corrective. A key support at $61.99, the Jun 30 low, has recently been breached, strengthening a bearish theme. A continuation lower would open $57.71, the May 30 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $69.36, the Jul 30 high. Clearance of this level would cancel a bear theme. Initial resistance to watch is $66.56, the Aug 4 high.
GOLD TECHS: Approaching The Bull Trigger
- RES 4: $3600.0 - Round number resistance
- RES 3: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 2: $3500.1 - High Apr 22 and bull trigger
- RES 1: $3486.1 - Intraday high
- PRICE: $3483.5 @ 07:21 BST Sep 1
- SUP 1: $3437.1 - Intraday low
- SUP 2: $3371.9 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: $3348.9 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: $3311.6 - Low Aug 20
Gold is trading sharply higher today as the metal begins the week on a bullish note. The primary trend direction remains up and sights are on key resistance and the bull trigger at $3500.1, the Apr 22 all-time high. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open $3547.9, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support to watch lies at $3371.9, the 20-day EMA.
BUNDS: A Very Busy Week ahead
- The German Bund trades lower going into the Cash Open, as expected Month End had no impact on Friday, and with August behind us, risk is tilted to the downside.
- The early standout flow is in the Schatz, but this is all related to the spread being bought at -10.5.
- The September will expire next Monday for Eurex Bonds.
- Next support in Bund is at 129.16, followed by the 2.80% in Yield.
- Resistance is at today's high, 129.50, but better is seen at 130.00 despite printing a 130.06 high on the 14th August.
- This is a very busy Week ahead, and all about the Data, Bond Traders will also look to complete their Eurex Rolls.
- Today only sees, final Mfg PMIs for France, Germany, EU, UK.
- There are no Data out of the US given that this is a US Bank Holiday (Labour Day).
