GOLD TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: $3909.4 - 2.000 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing
- RES 3: $3831.4 - 1.764 proj of the Dec 30 ’24 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
- RES 2: $3800.0 - Round number resistance
- RES 1: $3791.1 - High Sep 23
- PRICE: $3745.6 @ 07:27 BST Sep 24
- SUP 1: $3683.8 - Low Sep 22
- SUP 2: $3622.2 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: $3504.6 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: $3439.0 - High Jul 23
The trend condition in Gold is unchanged and a bull cycle remains in play. A fresh all-time high once again, on Tuesday, confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and an extension of the sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The next objective is the $3800.0 handle. Initial firm support lies at $3622.2, the 20-day EMA. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend.
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BUNDS: Early widening against OAT
- The German Bund remains fairly unchanged and within past ranges, the contract goes bid post Cash open, but still inside the initial support and resistance.
- These stands circa 128.59 for support, the 2.80% Yield level, and the initial resistance is still at 129.62.
- The French OAT underperforms after PM Bayrou called for a Confidence Vote on the 8th September, Bund/OAT spread widens by 2bps on the Open.
- There are no Tier 1 Data out of Europe, the French Consumer Confidence isn't a market mover. Out of the US, prelim Durable Goods and Consumer Confidence are the Data release for Today.
- Main focus on the Data front is all on Friday, a packed day for Data.
- Bond Traders will look to conclude Rolling their Gilt and Treasury rolling positions Today and Tomorrow. Friday will also focus on Month End, these are tiny for Europe, a non event for the UK, but decent for the US, just above the August average.
- SUPPLY: €3bn 2yr BTP (equates to 17.4k short 2yr BTPS) should have limited impact. {us} US Sells $69bn of 2yr Notes, should weigh.
- SPEAKERS: ECB Villeroy, BoE Mann.
GOLD TECHS: Support Remains Intact
- RES 4: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 3: $3500.1 - High Apr 22 and bull trigger
- RES 2: $3451.3 - High Jun 16
- RES 1: $3409.2/3439.0 - High Aug 8 / 23
- PRICE: $3373.7 @ 07:21 BST Aug 26
- SUP 1: $3311.6/3268.2 - Low Aug 20 / Low Jul 30
- SUP 2: $3248.7 - Low Jun 30 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $3204.7 - Low May 20
- SUP 4: $3121.0 - Low May 15 and key support
The medium-term trend condition in Gold remains bullish - moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. The sideways direction that has been in place since the Apr peak appears to be a pause in the uptrend. A resumption of gains would open $3439.0, the Aug 23 high. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at $3500.1, the Apr 22 low. On the downside, first key support to watch lies at $3268.2, the Jul 30 low.
BRENT TECHS: (V5) Gains Appear Corrective
- RES 4: $81.07 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 3: $79.86 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 2: $77.73 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: $69.98/72.83 - High Aug 4 / High Jul 30 and a key resistance
- PRICE: $68.49 @ 07:06 BST Aug 26
- SUP 1: $65.01 - Low Aug 13
- SUP 2: $60.96 - Low May 30
- SUP 3: $58.18 - Low May 5
- SUP 4: $57.74 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
Brent futures are holding on to their most recent gains. Despite the latest recovery - a correction - a bear cycle remains intact. Sights are on $65.01, the Aug 13 low, where a clear break would confirm a resumption of the bear leg and pave the way for an extension lower. A clear breach would open $60.96, the May 30 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $72.83, the Jul 30 high. Clearance of this level would cancel a bear theme.
