GOLD TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 107.430 High Jun 13  
• RES 3: 107.360 High Jul 22 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 107.222 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 107.157 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 107.055 @ 07:15 BST Aug 11
• SUP 1: 107.010 Low Jul 25 and a bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 107.993 1.500 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing 
• SUP 3: 106.964 1.618 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing
• SUP 4: 106.928 1.764 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing

The sell-off in Schatz futures between Jul 23 - 25, resulted in a break of key short-term support at 107.120, the Jul 11 low and a bear trigger. However, the contract has recovered from the Jul 25 low and recent price patterns highlight a potential base. A resumption of gains would expose resistance at the 20-day EMA, at 107.157. The 50-day EMA is at 107.222. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 107.010, the Jul 25 low.                                                                    

• RES 4: 118.390 High Jun 13    
• RES 3: 118.030 High Jul 22 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 117.627 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 117.710 High Aug 5
• PRICE: 117.330 @ 07:13 BST Aug 11
• SUP 1: 116.970 Low Jul 25 and a bear trigger   
• SUP 2: 116.840 Low Mar 18 (cont)
• SUP 3: 116.800 Low Mar 17 (cont) 
• SUP 4: 116.637 76.4% retracement of the Mar 6 - Apr 7 bull leg (cont)

Following the early August rally, prices have faded slightly off the weekly high but are holding the bulk of the recent strength. Bobl futures have pierced first resistance of 117.627 (the 50-day EMA), improving the short-term outlook. The bullish candle pattern on Jul 25 and 28 - a hammer formation followed by an engulfing signal - highlights a potential base. A continuation higher would open 118.030, the Jul 22 high. The bear trigger lies at 116.970, the Jul 25 low.

• RES 4: 131.33 High Jun 20
• RES 3: 130.85 61.8% retracement of the Jun 13 - Jul 14 bear leg 
• RES 2: 130.76 High Jul 22
• RES 1: 130.60 High Aug 5
• PRICE: 129.81 @ 07:07 BST Aug 11
• SUP 1: 128.84 Low Jul 25 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 128.40 Low Apr 9
• SUP 3: 128.19 Low Mar 27 (cont) 
• SUP 4: 127.83 76.4% retracement of the Mar 11 - Apr 7 bull leg (cont)  

Slipping into the Friday close, Bund futures edged back below the 130.00 handle into the close - although the bear trigger and notable support of 128.84 wasn’t tested. The 50-day EMA of 130.12 has been pierced to the upside, but the rally failed to stick. A continuation higher would open 130.76, the Jul 22 high. A hammer candle formation on Jul 25 followed by a bullish engulfing candle on Jul 28 signals a potential reversal.