EURGBP TECHS: Bullish Trend Sequence
- RES 4: 0.8865 1.764 proj of the Sep 15 - 25 - Oct 8 price swing
- RES 3: 0.8848 1.618 proj of the Sep 15 - 25 - Oct 8 price swing
- RES 2: 0.8835 High May 3 2023
- RES 1: 0.8830 Intraday high
- PRICE: 0.8819 @ 06:39 GMT Nov 5
- SUP 1: 0.8763 Low Nov 3
- SUP 2: 0.8741 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 0.8707 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 0.8656 Low Oct 8 and a key support
A bull cycle in EURGBP remains intact. The break last week of resistance at 0.8769, the Jul 28 high and a bull trigger, confirms a resumption of the uptrend and this week's fresh cycle high reinforces current conditions. Sights are on 0.8835, the May 3 2023 high. Initial support lies at 0.8763, the Nov 3 low. Note that the trend is overbought, a pullback would be considered corrective.
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OAT: Fresh Session Low For Futures As Faure Comments Get Wider Attention
OAT futures briefly take another leg lower as comments from Socialist Leader Faure get more widespread attention.
- The contract reached a session low of 121.00, matching last Wednesday's low, before recovering to 121.12 at typing (-43 ticks today).
- A reminder that Lecornu will provide an address to the National Assembly tomorrow, which risks a censure vote.
OAT: OAT/Bunds Set For Widest Close Since January
Ongoing/heightened domestic & political risks stemming from the lack of clear avenues to resolve the French Budget situation pressure OATs this morning, OAT/Bund spread ~3.5bp wider at 84.5bp, on track for the highest close since January 13 (84.8bp the target there).
- PM Lecornu has stressed that he will not use article 49.3, while seemingly looking to implement extra taxes on super high earners),
- Fresh headlines from French Socialist leader Faure note that he doesn't see how the party could not vote against the government in a confidence vote, add further widening pressure.
- Against this backdrop Commerzbank note that “Lecornu's efforts to find consensus on a 2026 budget remain an uphill struggle ahead of tomorrow's key address, with latest headlines suggesting a wealth-tax and additional income tax on the wealthy to win support from left-leaning lawmakers. The clock is ticking though as Lecornu has to present a budget to parliament by 13 October. With rising odds for no agreement and rating risks looming over coming weeks, we would stay away from OAT risk for now”.
WTI TECHS: (X5) Bear Mode Condition
- RES 4: $76.89 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 3: $74.79- 2.500 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 2: $73.39 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: $66.42/68.43 - High Sep 29 and key resistance / High Jul 30
- PRICE: $61.56 @ 07:21 BST Oct 6
- SUP 1: $60.40 - Low Oct 2
- SUP 2: $57.50 - Low May 30
- SUP 3: $54.89 - Low May 5
- SUP 4: $54.10 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
WTI futures remain in a bear-mode condition. Last week’s sell-off resulted in a move through key support and the bear trigger at $60.85, the Aug 13 low. Clearance of this level strengthens a bearish theme and paves the way for an extension towards $57.50, the May 30 low. Initial firm resistance has been defined at $66.42, the Sep 29 high. Clearance of this level would highlight a reversal.
