SILVER TECHS: Bullish Theme Remains Intact

• RES 4: 0.6409 High Dec 9 and a key resistance 
• RES 3: 0.6389 High Apr 3               
• RES 2: 0.6270 50-day EMA 
• RES 1: 0.6127/0.6187 High Apr 7 / Low Mar 4   
• PRICE: 0.5996 @ 08:05 BST Apr 9 
• SUP 1: 0.5915 Intraday low 
• SUP 2: 0.5900 Round number support 
• SUP 3: 0.5830 2.000 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.5729 2.236 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing

AUDUSD maintains a bearish tone following the latest steep sell-off. The move down confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started late September last year. A key support at 0.6088, the Feb 3 low, has been broken. This paves the way for an extension towards the 0.5900 handle next. On the upside, resistance to watch is at 0.6187, the Mar 4 low. The trend is oversold, a recovery would allow this set-up to unwind. 

Handelsbanken now expect the Riksbank to cut rates to 1.50% this year, with cuts in June, August and September, as “the dramatic US tariff increases are leading to a US recession and delaying the recovery of the Swedish economy”.

• Their previous base case saw rates on hold a 2.25% through 2025.
• Handelsbanken note that “with higher tariffs than expected and turbulence in the financial markets, everything now indicates that [Swedish] growth this year will be significantly weaker than we expected in our previous forecast.”
• “Our assessment is that the inflation target is not threatened by the higher tariffs, and that the Riksbank will therefore act to mitigate the negative effects on the economy”. 

• RES 4: 114-10   High Apr 7 and the bull trigger  
• RES 3: 113-09+ 76.4% retracement of the Apr 7 - 9 sell-off
• RES 2: 112-21+ 61.8% retracement of the Apr 7 - 9 sell-off   
• RES 1: 112-08   High Apr 7 
• PRICE:‌‌ 110-25 @ 07:49 BST Apr 9 
• SUP 1: 110-01   Intraday low 
• SUP 2: 109-29   Trendline support drawn from the Jan 13 low  
• SUP 3: 109-13+ Low Feb 24  
• SUP 4: 108-26+ 76.4% of the Jan 13 - Apr 7 bull cycle    

A sharp sell-off in Treasury futures this week has resulted in a breach of both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. Attention is on trendline support at 109-29, drawn from the Jan 13 low. A clear break of this support would strengthen a bearish threat. Note that the steep sell-off could still be a corrective pullback that has allowed an oversold trend condition to unwind. Initial resistance to watch is 112-08, yesterday’s high. A break would highlight a possible early reversal.