SILVER TECHS: Bullish Theme Remains Intact
- RES 4: $36.000 - Round number resistance
- RES 3: $34.903 - High Oct 23 ‘24 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: $34.590 - High Mar 28
- RES 1: $33.686 - High Apr 25
- PRICE: $32.535 @ 08:07 BST May 9
- SUP 1: $31.668 - Low May 1
- SUP 2: $30.915/28.351 - Low Apr 11 / 7 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 ‘24
- SUP 4: $27.180 - Low Aug 14 ‘24
A bullish theme in Silver remains intact and the latest pullback that started Apr 25, is likely a correction. Key short-term support has been defined at $31.668, the May 1 low. A break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement and open $30.915, the Apr 11 low. For bulls, resistance to watch is $33.686, the Apr 24 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.
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AUDUSD TECHS: Oversold But Remains Bearish
- RES 4: 0.6409 High Dec 9 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 0.6389 High Apr 3
- RES 2: 0.6270 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 0.6127/0.6187 High Apr 7 / Low Mar 4
- PRICE: 0.5996 @ 08:05 BST Apr 9
- SUP 1: 0.5915 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 0.5900 Round number support
- SUP 3: 0.5830 2.000 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
- SUP 4: 0.5729 2.236 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
AUDUSD maintains a bearish tone following the latest steep sell-off. The move down confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started late September last year. A key support at 0.6088, the Feb 3 low, has been broken. This paves the way for an extension towards the 0.5900 handle next. On the upside, resistance to watch is at 0.6187, the Mar 4 low. The trend is oversold, a recovery would allow this set-up to unwind.
RIKSBANK: VIEW: Handelsbanken Now Expect Cuts In Jun, Aug and Sep To 1.50%
Handelsbanken now expect the Riksbank to cut rates to 1.50% this year, with cuts in June, August and September, as “the dramatic US tariff increases are leading to a US recession and delaying the recovery of the Swedish economy”.
- Their previous base case saw rates on hold a 2.25% through 2025.
- Handelsbanken note that “with higher tariffs than expected and turbulence in the financial markets, everything now indicates that [Swedish] growth this year will be significantly weaker than we expected in our previous forecast.”
- “Our assessment is that the inflation target is not threatened by the higher tariffs, and that the Riksbank will therefore act to mitigate the negative effects on the economy”.
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (M5) Monitoring Trendline Support
- RES 4: 114-10 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 113-09+ 76.4% retracement of the Apr 7 - 9 sell-off
- RES 2: 112-21+ 61.8% retracement of the Apr 7 - 9 sell-off
- RES 1: 112-08 High Apr 7
- PRICE: 110-25 @ 07:49 BST Apr 9
- SUP 1: 110-01 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 109-29 Trendline support drawn from the Jan 13 low
- SUP 3: 109-13+ Low Feb 24
- SUP 4: 108-26+ 76.4% of the Jan 13 - Apr 7 bull cycle
A sharp sell-off in Treasury futures this week has resulted in a breach of both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. Attention is on trendline support at 109-29, drawn from the Jan 13 low. A clear break of this support would strengthen a bearish threat. Note that the steep sell-off could still be a corrective pullback that has allowed an oversold trend condition to unwind. Initial resistance to watch is 112-08, yesterday’s high. A break would highlight a possible early reversal.
