GBPUSD TECHS: Bullish Short-Term Outlook

Jan-30 18:30
  • RES 4: 1.2667 High Dec 19 
  • RES 3: 1.2610 38.2% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 swing    
  • RES 2: 1.2576 High Jan 7
  • RES 1: 1.2514/23 50-day EMA / High Jan 27 
  • PRICE: 1.2465 @ 16:19 GMT Jan 30
  • SUP 1: 1.2398/2294 20-day EMA / Low Jan 23  
  • SUP 2: 1.2229 Low Jan 21
  • SUP 3: 1.2100 Low Jan 10 and the bear trigger 
  • SUP 4: 1.2087 0.764 proj of the Sep 26 - Nov 22 - Dec 6 price swing    

A bull cycle in GBPUSD remains in play and the pair is trading just below its recent highs. The 20-day EMA has been cleared and sights are on the 50-day EMA, at 1.2514 and an important resistance. Clearance of the average would highlight a stronger bull cycle. Medium-term trend signals are unchanged and remain bearish. A reversal lower would refocus attention on 1.2100, the Jan 10. Clearance of this level resumes a downtrend.

Historical bullets

STIR: FED Reverse Repo Year-End Operation Usage Jumps to Late June Level

Dec-31 18:22

RRP usage surged to the highest level since June 28 into year end: $473.460B this afternoon from $260.743B Monday. Compares to $98.356B on Friday, December 20 - the lowest level since mid-April 2021. The number of counterparties jumped to 80 from 57 prior.

US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: Mar'25 30Y & 5Y Crosses

Dec-31 18:04

Volume picked up into the noon hour, mixed crosses Tsu futures attempted to climb off session lows:

  • +5,350 FVH5 106-11.25, buy through 106-11 post time offer at 1257:52ET
  • -3,000 USH5 113-25, sell through 113-26 post time bid at 1256:43ET

FED: US TSY TO SELL $85.000 BLN 4W BILL JAN 02, SETTLE JAN 07

Dec-31 17:05
  • US TSY TO SELL $85.000 BLN 4W BILL JAN 02, SETTLE JAN 07