GBPUSD TECHS: Bullish Short-Term Outlook
- RES 4: 1.2667 High Dec 19
- RES 3: 1.2610 38.2% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 swing
- RES 2: 1.2576 High Jan 7
- RES 1: 1.2514/23 50-day EMA / High Jan 27
- PRICE: 1.2440 @ 06:16 GMT Jan 30
- SUP 1: 1.2398/2294 20-day EMA / Low Jan 23
- SUP 2: 1.2229 Low Jan 21
- SUP 3: 1.2100 Low Jan 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 1.2087 0.764 proj of the Sep 26 - Nov 22 - Dec 6 price swing
A bull cycle in GBPUSD remains in play and the pair is trading just below its recent highs. The 20-day EMA has been cleared and sights are on the 50-day EMA, at 1.2514 and an important resistance. Clearance of the average would highlight a stronger bull cycle. Medium-term trend signals are unchanged and remain bearish. A reversal lower would refocus attention on 1.2100, the Jan 10. Clearance of this level resumes a downtrend.
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EURUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points South
- RES 4: 1.0825 High Nov 7
- RES 3: 1.0630 High Dec 06
- RES 2: 1.0582 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.0461/0534 20-day EMA / High Dec 17
- PRICE: 1.0403 @ 06:16 GMT Dec 31
- SUP 1: 1.0343 Low Dec 20
- SUP 2: 1.0335 Low Nov 22 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 1.0311 1.382 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
- SUP 4: 1.0258 1.500 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
EURUSD is trading inside a range and remains above its recent lows. A bearish condition highlights scope for a test of key support at 1.0335, the Nov 22 low and a bear trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of downtrend and open 1.0311, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Initial firm resistance is at 1.0461, the 20-day EMA.
BUND TECHS: (H5) Retracement Mode Intact
- RES 4: 137.75 Low Dec 10
- RES 3: 135.15 High Dec 13
- RES 2: 134.59 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 133.79 High Dec 27
- PRICE: 133.44 @ Close Dec 30
- SUP 1: 132.71 Low Dec 30
- SUP 2 132.00 Low Nov 6 and key support
- SUP 3: 130.78 123..6% retracement of the Nov 6 - Dec 2 bull leg
- SUP 4: 130.00 Psychological round number
The trend cycle in Bund futures remains bearish and last Friday’s sharp sell-off reinforces current conditions. The contract has traded through 133.22, 61.8% of the Nov 6 - Dec 2 bull cycle. This paves the way for an extension towards key support at 132.00, the Nov 6 low. Initial resistance is seen at 133.79, the Dec 27 high. Key short-term resistance is at 134.59, the 20-day EMA. Gains are considered corrective - for now.
EQUITIES: APAC Lower, US Futures Continue Monday’s Sell Off
APAC equity markets are generally lower in holiday-thinned trading as risk sentiment deteriorated following disappointing China manufacturing PMI data, although non-manufacturing surprised to the upside. US S&P and NASDAQ futures are down around 0.1% after the main indices fell on Monday. The USD index is slightly lower.
- The Hang Seng is the only main index that is higher today rising 0.1%. China’s CSI 300 fell 0.6%.
- The ASX closed down 0.9% driven by real estate and consumer durables, while energy was one of only two sectors to rise. NZ was also weak with the NZX 50 down 1.2%.
- Malaysia, Singapore and India are all lower.
- Japan, South Korea and Thailand are closed. New Zealand and Australia shut early.
- Other early finishes include Hong Kong at 12:00, Philippines at 11:55 and Singapore at 12:00.
- Germany, Italy, Switzerland, Sweden and Norway have holidays, the UK closes at 12:30 and France at 14:05.
- US October house price data and December Dallas Fed print later.
