USDJPY TECHS: Bullish Outlook
- RES 4: 146.52 1.236 proj of the May 24 - Jul 14 - Aug 2 price swing
- RES 3: 146.03 2.764 proj of the Aug 2 - 8 - 11 price swing
- RES 2: 145.90 High Sep 22 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 145.34 High Oct 7
- PRICE: 145.03 @ 14:15 BST Oct 7
- SUP 1: 143.20/141.77 20-day EMA / Low Sep 23
- SUP 2: 140.36 Low Sep 22, 50-day EMA and key short-term support
- SUP 3: 139.39 High Jul 14 and a former key resistance
- SUP 4: 137.37 Low Aug 29
USDJPY remains in consolidation mode. The pair is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains from 140.36, the Sep 22 low and the key short-term support. The primary uptrend remains intact and sights are on the bull trigger at 145.90, Sep 22 high. A break would confirm a resumption of the trend and open 146.03, a Fibonacci projection. Clearance of 140.36 is required to highlight a top.
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USDJPY TECHS: Bull Rally Extension
- RES 4: 147.25 3.00 proj of the Aug 2 - 8 - 11 price swing
- RES 3: 146.52 1.236 proj of the May 24 - Jul 14 - Aug 2 price swing
- RES 2: 146.03 2.764 proj of the Aug 2 - 8 - 11 price swing
- RES 1: 145.28 2.618 proj of the Aug 2 - 8 - 11 price swing
- PRICE: 144.40 @ 17:00 BST Sep 7
- SUP 1: 142.71 Low Sep 7
- SUP 2: 140.25./139.87 Low Sep 6 / Low Sep 2
- SUP 3: 138.86/03 Low Sep 1 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 4: 136.07 50-day EMA
USDJPY continues to appreciate and extend this week’s impulsive bull run. The acceleration of the trend reinforces the current bullish theme following last week’s resumption of the primary uptrend - former resistance at 139.39 has been cleared, the Jul 14 high. Attention is on 145.00 where a break would further strengthen conditions. This would open 145.28 and further out 146.03, Fibonacci projections. Firm trend support is 138.03, the 20-day EMA.
EURGBP TECHS: Trend Outlook Remains Bullish
- RES 4: 0.8840 High Feb 2
- RES 3: 0.8811 1.236 proj of the Apr 14 - Jun 15 - Aug 2 price swing
- RES 2: 0.8721 High Jun 15 and a medium-term bull trigger
- RES 1: 0.8689 High Sep 7
- PRICE: 0.8665 @ 16:58 BST Sep 7
- SUP 1: 0.8567 Low Sep 6
- SUP 2: 0.8531 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 0.8500 50-day EMA
- SUP 4:0.8408 Low Aug 23
EURGBP remains in an uptrend following last week’s gains and despite the latest corrective pullback. Prices have now topped 0.8679, the Jul 1 high. Clearance here strengthens bullish conditions and exposes the key resistance at 0.8721, the Jun 15 high and an important bull trigger. A break of 0.8721 would confirm a resumption of the bull cycle that started in early March. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at 0.8531, the Sep 6 low.
CANADA: USDCAD Extends Session Lows As Equities Gaining
- Growing USD weakness and equity strength on the day, rather than a BoC reaction to which there was little immediate move earlier, drives USDCAD to session lows at 1.3131 but still towards the top of yesterday’s range.
- The move comes despite oil sliding, with the negative correlation to the pair once again fading (20-day rolling sitting at just -0.23).
- Despite a brief clearance of 1.32 ahead of the BoC, technical levels haven’t been troubled today with resistance still seen at 1.3224 (Jul 14 highs, with late 2020 levels beyond that) and support at 1.3075 (Sep 2 low).
- Looking beyond the upcoming Fed’s Beige Book and VC for Supervision Barr, attention will turn to the ECB/Powell tomorrow before locally, BoC Senior Dep Gov Rogers and then Canadian employment on Friday.
USDCAD (white) and front-end Can-US yield differential Source: Bloomberg
