SILVER TECHS: Bullish Outlook
- RES 4: $39.026 - 1.382 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
- RES 3: $38.246 - 1.236 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
- RES 2: $38.000 - Round number resistance
- RES 1: $37.317 - High Jun 18 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: $36.594 @ 08:14 BST Jul 9
- SUP 1: $36.198 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: $35.085/31.651 - 50-day EMA / Low May 15
- SUP 3: $30.915/28.351 - Low Apr 11 / 7 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 ‘24
Trend conditions in Silver are unchanged, a bull cycle remains intact. The metal has recently traded through resistance at $34.903, the Oct 23 ‘24 high and a key bull trigger. The break of it marks an important medium-term bullish development. Sights are on the $38.00 handle next. On the downside, initial support to watch lies at $36.198, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would open $35.085, the 50-day EMA.
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BTP: Citi Flag Risk Of BTP/Bund Move To 75bp
Citi note that “EGB spreads shrugged off the hawkish ECB cut and neutral risk-asset behaviour last week to extend their tightening”.
- They suggest that “while BTPs look rich vs other risk assets (and our fair value model), we suspect they are going through a regime change in shedding some of the legacy risk premium. This might have more to go, and any near-term consolidation and the impact of elevated NCR in coming months might give way to 10-Year BTP/Bund spread reaching 75bp over the course of ‘25”.
SILVER TECHS: Impulsive Bull Wave Extends
- RES 4: $38.000 - Round number resistance
- RES 3: $37.195 - 2.236 proj of the May 15 - 22 high / low price swing
- RES 2: $36.987 - 1.000 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 price swing
- RES 1: $36.712 - 2.000 proj of the May 15 - 22 high / low price swing
- PRICE: $36.283 @ 08:06 BST Jun 9
- SUP 1: $33.967 - Low Jun 3
- SUP 2: $33.147/31.651 - 50-day EMA / Low May 15
- SUP 3: $30.915/28.351 - Low Apr 11 / 7 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 ‘24
An impulsive bull wave in Silver remains in play and last week’s strong gains reinforce this condition. The metal has recently cleared a number of important resistance points. Thursday’s rally resulted in a move above $34.903, the Oct 23 ‘24 high and a key bull trigger. The clear break of it marks an important medium-term bullish development. Sights are on $36.712 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch lies at $33.967, the Jun 3 low.
BONDS: BTP/Bund spread tightens towards 91.00bps
- The Italian BTP futures is leading the gains in EGBs here, but the contract is still short of Friday's high, although the small resistance is seen at 121.04.
- Regardless, the price action has put the BTP/Bund another 1bp tighter, and could be set to test the big Psychological 90.00bps level, printed a 90.4bps low in 2021, its lowest since Mid March 2015.
