SILVER TECHS: Bull Wave Remains Intact

ING note that “as expected, the vote on the change in Dutch pension reform rules was delayed, but the timelines going forward are shorter than expected. Today, parliament will come together to discuss an updated proposal. The vote will be scheduled for next week, likely on 20 May. This shortens the uncertainty about potential delays. Approving the proposal would require pension funds to offer participants an opt-out and instead keep accrued pensions under the old defined benefits system. Such a change would mean that a transition date of 1 January 2026 for many major funds would no longer be realistic”.

• “The updated proposal keeps the opt-out clause as the default option. Funds can also still choose to go for a vote of approval, which would need a majority and a minimum of 30% participation rate. Compared to earlier versions of the proposal, it now includes more communication requirements. The annexe of the proposal also attempts to address some of the concerns various stakeholders have voiced about the complexity of the proposed changes. Our baseline remains that the proposal fails to find a majority given the broad-based criticism. A lot will hinge on a few smaller parties. If approved, however, we could see some reaction in the long end of the swap curve as market participants reconsider their curve steepeners”.

• RES 4: $36.000 - Round number resistance 
• RES 3: $34.903 - High Oct 23 ‘24 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $34.590 - High Mar 28  
• RES 1: $33.686 - High Apr 25                                        
• PRICE: $32.814 @ 08:06 BST May 14
• SUP 1: $31.668 -  Low May 1
• SUP 2: $30.915/28.351 - Low Apr 11 / 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 ‘24   
• SUP 4: $27.180 - Low Aug 14 ‘24   

Silver is unchanged. A bullish theme remains intact and the latest pullback that started Apr 25, is likely a correction. Key short-term support has been defined at $31.668, the May 1 low. A break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement and open $30.915, the Apr 11 low. For bulls, resistance to watch is $33.686, the Apr 25 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.

• RES 4: 1.4296 High Apr 7
• RES 3: 1.4111 High Apr 4 
• RES 2: 1.4031 50-day EMA 
• RES 1: 1.4016 High May 12 / 13
• PRICE: 1.3931 @ 08:02 BST May 14
• SUP 1: 1.3814/3751 Low May 8 / 6 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: 1.3744 76.4% retracement of Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull run
• SUP 3: 1.3696 Low Oct 10 2024
• SUP 4: 1.3643 Low Oct 9 ‘24 

USDCAD maintains a firmer short-term tone. Despite the latest gains, the trend condition remains bearish and the move higher is considered corrective. A fresh cycle low last week reinforces the bearish theme. Potential is seen for a move towards 1.3744, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that moving average studies are in a bear mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key resistance is seen at 1.4031, the 50-day EMA.