GOLD TECHS: Bull Trend Intact
- RES 4: $3578.0 - 2.000 proj of the Dec 19 - Feb 24 - Feb 28 swing
- RES 3: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 2: $3435.6/3500.1 - High May 7 / High Apr 22 and bull trigger
- RES 1: $3392.2 - High Jun 3
- PRICE: $3352.4 @ 07:25 BST Jun 4
- SUP 1: $3302.4/3225.5 - 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: $3121.0 - Low May 15 and key support
- SUP 3: $3085.0 - 61.8% retracement of the Apr 7 - Apr 22 upleg
- SUP 4: $3100.0 - Round number support
A bullish theme in Gold remains intact and this week’s gains reinforce current conditions. Medium-term trend signals are bullish too - moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on $3435.6 next, the May 7 high. A break of this hurdle would strengthen bullish conditions. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger to watch has been defined at $3121.0, the May 15 low.
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WTI TECHS: (M5) Momentum Shifts Lower
- RES 4: $75.51 - High Jan 15 and a key resistance
- RES 3: $72.56 - High Feb 20
- RES 2: $71.76 - High Apr 2 and key resistance
- RES 1: $61.94/64.61 - 20- and 50-day EMA values
- PRICE: $56.58 @ 07:14 BST May 5
- SUP 1: $54.67 - Low April 9 and bear trigger
- SUP 2: $53.72 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
- SUP 3: $52.54 - 2.382 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 4 - 11 price swing
- SUP 4: $50.00 - Psychological round number
A medium-term bearish trend in WTI futures remains intact and last week’s sell-off reinforces this theme. The move down signals the end of the correction between Apr 9 - 23. The correction allowed an oversold trend condition to unwind. Attention is on $54.67, the Apr 9 low and a bear trigger. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend and open $53.72, a Fibonacci projection. Resistance to watch is $64.61, the 50-day EMA.
GOLD TECHS: Testing Support
- RES 4: $3600.0 - Round number resistance
- RES 3: $3578.0 - 2.000 proj of the Dec 19 - Feb 24 - Feb 28 swing
- RES 2: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 1: $3386.6/3500.1 - High Apr 23 / 22 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: $3259.6 @ 07:19 BST May 5
- SUP 1: $3202.0 - Low May 1
- SUP 2: $3167.8 - High Apr 3 and a recent breakout level
- SUP 3: $3164.3 - 61.8% retracement Apr 7 - Apr 22 upleg
- SUP 4: $3115.1 - 50-day EMA
Gold is trading closer to its recent lows and a corrective cycle remains in play for now. The yellow metal has breached the 20-day EMA. A continuation lower would highlight a deeper retracement and open the 50-day EMA, at 3115.11 - a key support. The primary trend direction remains up. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on $3500.0, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this level resumes the uptrend.
CROSS ASSET: Bunds, USD softer to start Fed week, trade deals could be by Friday
- It's a UK market holiday today, however European and US markets are open as usual throughout. Newsflow over the weekend touches on familiar themes - with US trade deals potentially announced this week (deals with Japan and India are among the most advanced) and the President again voicing dissatisfaction in Fed's Powell ahead of this week's rate decision.
- The greenback is weaker against all others headed into the open, however pullbacks are shallow and markets still hold a decent part of last Friday's rally. Some nerves of the potential use of Japan's UST holdings in trade negotiations were allayed overnight, as the PM stated they would note use holdings as a bargaining chip.
- Meanwhile, Bunds are weaker in early Europe and have shown through last Friday's lows. Despite the latest move down, a bull cycle is in play, however weakness through 128.60 would change that outlook.
- US ISM Services data is the calendar highlight Monday. The Fed remain inside their pre-decision media blackout period.
