EURUSD TECHS: Bull Flag Formation Reinforces Bullish Conditions
- RES 4: 1.0981 High Mar 8 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 1.0964 High Mar 13
- RES 2: 1.0933 61.8% retracement of the Dec 28 - Apr 16 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.0895 High May 16
- PRICE: 1.0824 @ 15:59 BST May 23
- SUP 1: 1.0814 Former channel top drawn from the Dec 28 high
- SUP 2: 1.0788 50-day EMA and a key near-term support
- SUP 3: 1.0724 Low May 3
- SUP 4: 1.0650 Low May 1
Recent price action in EURUSD appears to be a flag - a bullish continuation pattern that reinforces current bullish conditions. Last week's rally resulted in a bear channel breakout - price cleared the top of a channel drawn from the Dec 28 high and the break confirms a stronger reversal. Sights are on 1.0933 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm support lies at 1.0788, the 50-day EMA.
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EURUSD TECHS: Bear Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 1.0943 High Mar 21
- RES 3: 1.0885 High Apr 09
- RES 2: 1.0732/0789 20- and 50-day EMA values
- RES 1: 1.0725 Low Apr 2
- PRICE: 1.0700 @ 16:15 BST Apr 23
- SUP 1: 1.0601 Low Apr 16
- SUP 2: 1.0568 Low Nov 2 ‘23
- SUP 3: 1.0543 Base of a bear channel drawn from the Dec 28 high
- SUP 4: 1.0517 Low Nov 1 ‘23
EURUSD rallied into the Monday close, but stopped short of troubling resistance. Nonetheless, a bear cycle remains in play and price is trading closer to recent lows. The break on Apr 12 of key support at 1.0695, the Feb 14 low and bear trigger, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend. This signals scope for a move towards 1.0568 next, the Nov 2 2023 low, and 1.0543, the base of a bear channel drawn from the Dec 28 high. Initial firm resistance is seen at 1.0732, the 20-day EMA.
OPTIONS: Larger FX Option Pipeline
- EUR/USD: Apr25 $1.0640-50(E1.4bln), $1.0750-60(E1.2bln); Apr26 $1.0600(E1.1bln), $1.0645-50(E2.7bln), $1.0680-85(E1.1bln), $1.0730-50(E1.2bln)
- USD/JPY: Apr25 Y155.00($1.3bln); Apr26 Y155.00($1.0bln)
- AUD/NZD: Apr25 N$1.0850(A$1.1bln); Apr29 N$1.0900(A$1.1bln)
- USD/CNY: Apr25 Cny7.1800($1.3bln); Apr26 Cny7.2500($1.1bln)
US TSYS/SUPPLY: WI 2Y
- WI slips to 4.904% from 4.919% earlier heading into the $69B 2Y note auction (91282CKK6) cut-off at 1300ET.
