GBPUSD TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains In Play

$24.9B Corporate issuance to price Tuesday

• Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
• 05/06 $5B #Bank of America $2.25B 4NC3 +85, $750M 4NC3 SOFR+111, $2B 11NC10 +115
• 05/06 $2.5B #PNC $1.25B 2NC1 +75, $1B 6NC5 +100
• 05/06 $2B #Grupo Nutresa $1B 5Y 8%, $1B 10Y 9%
• 05/06 $2B #Cummins Inc $300M +50, $700M +5Y +80, $1B 10Y +100
• 05/06 $1.75B #Starbucks $750M 3Y +77, $500M 5Y +90, $500M 10Y+110
• 05/06 $1.75B #Standard Chartered $1B 6NC5 +135, $750M 6NC5 SOFR+168
• 05/06 $1.75B #Biogen $400M +5Y +115, $650M 10Y +145, $700M 30Y +165
• 05/06 $1.75B #UBS 11NC10 +128
• 05/06 $1.5B #Deutsche Bank 6NC5 +140
• 05/06 $1B #Dominion Energy 3Y +87.5
• 05/06 $750B #Gold Fields 7Y +175
• 05/06 $650M #American Homes 4 Rent 5Y +117
• 05/06 $500M #Host Hotels & Resorts 7Y +180
• 05/06 $500M #SURA Asset Mgt 7Y +230
• 05/06 $500M *Shinhan Bank 5Y +72
• 05/06 $500M #LYB Int 10Y +187
• 05/06 $500M #Eaton WNG 5Y +65

Semafor reports that Democratic leaders, “keep drawing attention to President Donald Trump’s sagging poll numbers, but have no answer on why they’ve gotten even less support. [Democratic] Party pollsters worry that their brand is too associated with the political establishment.”

• Semafor summarises: ““Voters don’t necessarily trust that Democrats are going to stand up for them,” said Ian Smith, the director of polling and analytics at the Democratic firm Navigator Research. “Even folks that are seeing pain from what Trump’s doing see some logic in it.”
• “The optimistic case for Democrats, from Split Ticket’s Lakshya Jain, is that they’re only now about as weak as the average party after a loss. “The party out of power has a stink on them for a while,” he said. Democrats will confront one of their nagging problems tomorrow, when Joe and Jill Biden appear on The View.”
• The polling data may ease some potential concerns in the White House that Trump's declining approval rating could provoke greater pushback from Congressional Republicans who fear an election wipeout in 2026.

Figure 1: Americans’ View of the Democratic Party 

Source: Semafor, Democratic Party Weekly Poll Tracker, YouGov

Final March trade data confirmed a new record (nominal) deficit and the largest on a relative basis since 2005/06 in the imbalances ahead of the Great Financial Crisis. However, pharmaceutical tariff front-running and continued heavy imports of gold are greatly clouding interpretation of underlying trends. 

• The goods & services trade deficit was larger than expected in final March data, at $140.5bn (cons 137.2bn) after a slightly upward revised $123.2bn (initial $122.7bn) in Feb. It exceeds the $130.7bn in Jan.
• It came as the goods deficit confirmed a new record high of $163.5bn (larger again than the $162.0bn in the advance release) whilst the new data on the services surplus fell from $23.8bn in Feb to $23.0bn in Mar for the smallest surplus since Apr 2023.
• Of course, these are nominal figures whereas a better historical comparison is in % GDP terms. Here, and looking on a 3mth basis to smooth the data out, the goods deficit confirmed its widening to 6.2% GDP (last larger, and only just, in the 2005/06 imbalances before the GFC) whilst the services surplus held at 1.0% GDP as has broadly been the case since mid-2021.
• Pharmaceutical products, a point of contention for the Trump administration, were behind the 28% surge in consumer goods imports, attributing $20.9bn of the $22.5bn monthly increase.
• Specifically, pharma imports increased from $29.5bn to $50.4bn (71% M/M, and vs an average $20.5bn in 2024). That mostly tallied to a $15.5bn increase in imports from Ireland at $30.7bn – see the below chart for just how unprecedented this is in likely front-running ahead of previously touted pharmaceutical tariffs.
• Imports of monetary gold were off highs from Jan & Feb but still unsurprisingly had an outsized impact, with imports of finished metal shapes worth $21.3bn in March. That’s compared to $31.7bn in Feb and $34.2bn in Jan but an average of just $4bn in 2024. Comex inventories imply a significant moderation in this category in April.