GBPUSD TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 107.812 0.618 proj of the Mar 6 - Apr 7 - 9 price swing     
• RES 3: 107.800 Round number resistance    
• RES 2: 107.775 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 107.600/735 High Apr 30 / 22                   
• PRICE: 107.410 @ 06:12 BST May 6
• SUP 1: 107.370 Low Apr 17 
• SUP 2: 107.252 38.2% retracement of the Mar 6 - Apr 7 bull cycle     
• SUP 3: 107.125 Low Apr 10         
• SUP 4: 106.965 Low Apr 9 and a key support      

A bull cycle in Schatz futures remains in play and the latest pullback appears corrective. Attention is on resistance at 107.775, the Apr 7 high and bull trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 107.812, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Initial support to watch lies at 107.370, the Apr 17 low.

• April's PMI services unexpectedly dipped in April in signs that the US tariff war is hurting.   The CAIXIN PMI services had printed above 51 for six successive months and market expectations were for a continuation of this theme and a print of +51.8.   April's result of +50.7 is the lowest since September and could be an early warning sign that the economy is slowing quicker than first thought.   The government's official GDP growth forecast of 5% may be under threat and could bring about further policy intervention to support what looks like softening growth.  The details within today's release show a modest uptick in employment from +48.6 to +49.2; yet still in contraction and prices charged relative to last month rose.  (source MNI Market News)
• Hong Kong authorities sold a record HK$60.5 billion of the local dollar to defend the foreign-exchange peg as the greenback's slide threatened the currency's trading band.  The intervention helped dampen Hong Kong's borrowing rates and may also help shield the economy from US tariffs, with the HKMA's sales expected to drive up its aggregate balance and provide more firepower to defend the currency.  The HKMA's actions are seen as efforts to limit the currency's moves within its 7.75-7.85 per dollar trading band, with further intervention expected on the strong side of the band given the greenback weakness trend.  (source HKMA via BBG)
• In their first trading day back post the five day Labour Day holidays, China's major bourses all rose as expectations that the US trade war could ease. The equity gains are after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's said the US could see some "substantial progress in the coming weeks" in trade talks with China and President Donald Trump's suggesting that said he is willing to lower tariffs on China at some point.  China's Shenzhen Composite lead the way as the index rose +1.90% whilst Shanghai and CSI 300 were up +0.95%. The Hang Seng was strong today also rising +0.65%.
• Yuan Reference Rate at 7.2008 Per USD; Estimate 7.2465
• Bonds were very quiet today with the CGB 10YR flat at 1.63%