GBPUSD TECHS: Bull Cycle Intact

• RES 4: 1.3368 50.0% retracement of the Sep 17 - Nov 4 bear leg    
• RES 3: 1.3297 50-day EMA   
• RES 2: 1.3284 38.2% retracement of the Sep 17 - Nov 4 bear leg 
• RES 1: 1.3198/3206 20-day EMA / High Nov 13
• PRICE: 1.3073 @ 17:19 GMT Nov 19
• SUP 1: 1.3068/10 Low Nov 19 / Low Nov 4 & 5 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 1.2971 1.382 proj of the Sep 17 - 25 - Oct 1 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.2945 50.0% retracement of the Jan 13 - Jul 1 bull leg
• SUP 4: 1.2877 1.618 proj of the Sep 17 - 25 - Oct 1 price swing          

Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode condition, and spot slid further through Wednesday trade. This week’s price action continues to highlight a dominant downtrend. A reversal through 1.3010 would signal the end of the correction and a resumption of the bear leg - opening a possible next phase lower. Any return higher should meet key short-term resistance at the 20-day EMA, at 1.3198. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would signal scope for a stronger corrective cycle and expose the 50-day EMA, at 1.3297. 

RRP usage inches up to $1.129B with 8 counterparties this afternoon from yesterday's $0.905B - lowest level since mid-March 2021; this years highest excess liquidity measure: $460.731B on June 30.

A December 2 special election in Tennessee's 7th Congressional District will provide a temperature check on the electorate, following the mini blue wave elections in Virginia, New Jersey, New York, and elsewhere.

• While the November 5 elections took place largely in blue states, the Tennessee election will test Republican support in a district that voted for Trump by 22 points in 2024. A poor performance by Republican nominee Matt Van Epps could signal that Trump’s declining approval rating will weigh on Republicans in 2026. Data analyst Nate Silver notes that Trump’s approval rating has been on a steady decline since his inauguration. 
• NBC notes, “The four previous House special elections this year all saw Democratic candidates perform between 16 and 24 net points better than Kamala Harris did in [2024]… a similar Democratic overperformance in the Tennessee race would make it potentially competitive.”
• The special election comes after yesterday House vote on releasing the 'Epstein Files,' along with several other recent displays of Republican dissent, including a series of tariff votes in the Senate, the Senate’s unwillingness to terminate the filibuster to reopen the government, and Indiana Republicans’ opposition to redistricting, have led some observers to question whether this may be the beginning of Trump’s ‘lame duck’ period. Bloomberg’s Joe Weisenthal wrote on November 15: “Feels like Trump’s lame duck era is here or coming on quickly.” 

Figure 1: How Democrats have fared in this year’s special House Elections

Source: NBC News