GOLD TECHS: Bull Cycle Intact
- RES 4: $3987.3 - 2.236 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing
- RES 3: $3909.4 - 2.000 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing
- RES 2: $3900.0 - Round number resistance
- RES 1: $3896.9 - High Oct 2
- PRICE: $3859.2 @ 07:24 BST Oct 3
- SUP 1: $3793.2 - Low Sep 29
- SUP 2: $3715.0 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: $3683.8 - Low Sep 22
- SUP 4: $3572.8 - 50-day EMA
A bull cycle in Gold remains in play. The yellow metal has traded to a fresh cycle high this week, confirming a resumption of the primary uptrend. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on $3909.4, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, support to watch lies at $3715.0, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.
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BRENT TECHS: (X5) Key S/T Resistance Remains Intact For Now
- RES 4: $79.16 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 3: $77.28 - 2.382 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 2: $76.39 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: $69.53/71.93 - High Sep 2 / High Jul 30 and a key resistance
- PRICE: $68.94 @ 07:10 BST Sep 3
- SUP 1: $64.50 - Low Jun 30 and a key short-term support
- SUP 2: $60.82 - Low May 30
- SUP 3: $58.37 - Low May 5
- SUP 4: $57.81 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
Brent futures have traded higher this week. Short-term gains are for now, considered corrective and a bear cycle remains intact. A resumption of weakness would refocus attention on $64.50, the Jun 30 low, where a clear break would confirm a resumption of the bear leg. This would open $60.82, the May 30 low. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at $71.93, the Jul 30 high. Clearance of this level would cancel a bear theme.
BUNDS: The German Yield remains at 2.80%
- The German 10yr Yield should again be quoted close to that 2.80% level, this equated to 128.69 in RXU5 Yesterday, printed a 128.68 low and a 2.801% high.
- Today's low in the Sept expiry is 128.70.
- The early flow is again dominated by Eurex Rolls, albeit in small for now, but over half the front Month Volume is spread related in Germany, Schatz is the most active.
- Near term outlook for Bund remains to the Downside, of course NFP Friday could change that view very short term (on that Day).
- Immediate support is right here at 128.69, did print a 128.64 low on the 15th August.
- Further out, Cash and Swap Desks will be on the lookout for 2.85% = 128.17.
- Small resistance moves down to 129.18.
- Today sees, Services PMIs, but final for France, Germany, EU and UK. Out of the US, JOLTS, Factory Orders, final Durable Goods.
- SUPPLY: Germany €5bn 10yr (equates to 41.9k Bund) should weigh into the bidding deadline.
- SPEAKERS: ECB Lagarde, Fed Musalem, BoE Bailey, Lombardelli, Taylor, Greene, Breeden.
- SYNDICATION: Lithuania €benchmark, 10s, 20s.
UK FISCAL: Budget date to be announced today?
- As we noted last week, the earliest potential date for the UK Budget is now 12 November, with Wednesday dates possible through to 17 December (for more on this see UK FISCAL: November (or December) Budget?", 28 August).
- Politico has noted this morning that 26 November is the most likely date (which would be a week earlier than the earliest Budget held in recent years). And that the Budget date date is expected to be named today.
