EQUITIES: Bull Cycle in E-Mini S&P Intact as Contract Trades to Fresh Cycle High

• Headline 2.05% (2.0% MNI tracking, 2.1% MNI median ahead of national data, 2.04% prior)
• FAT 3.21% (3.2% MNI median, 3.25% prior)
• NEIG 0.78% (0.7% MNI median, 0.76% prior)
• Energy -1.89% (-1.6% MNI median, -2.39% prior)
• Services 3.10% (3.1% MNI median, 3.15% prior)
• Core 2.27% (2.2% MNI median, 2.31% prior)
  
  
   

• HICP came in line with consensus at 2.1% and a tenth above the MNI tracking of 2.0%.
• Core HICP surprised a tenth to the upside at 2.3%Y/Y while services CPI at 3.1% was in line with the MNI median.
• 2dp and more colour to follow.

A bear cycle in WTI futures remains intact and recent gains are considered corrective. A key support at $61.99, the Jun 30 low, has recently been breached, strengthening a bearish theme. A continuation lower would open $57.71, the May 30 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $69.36, the Jul 30 high. Clearance of this level would cancel a bear theme. Initial resistance to watch is $66.56, the Aug 4 high. Gold is trading sharply higher this week as the metal extends its bull cycle. Today’s gains have resulted in breach of key resistance at $3500.1, the Apr 22 high, and delivered a fresh all-time high. This confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and an extension of the sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The next objective is $3547.9, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support to watch lies at $3381.8, the 20-day EMA.

• WTI Crude up $1.67 or +2.61% at $65.68
• Natural Gas down $0.02 or -0.6% at $2.979
• Gold spot up $1.43 or +0.04% at $3477.25
• Copper down $3.1 or -0.68% at $456.05
• Silver down $0.45 or -1.11% at $40.2417
• Platinum down $22.35 or -1.59% at $1385.23