USDCAD TECHS: Bull Cycle Extension

• RES 3: 95.568 - 61.8% retracement Oct’25 - Jan’26 downleg
• RES 2: 95.362 - 38.2% retracement Oct’25 - Jan’26 downleg
• RES 1: 95.315 - High Jan 8,9&15, Feb 18
• PRICE: 95.275 @ 20:29 GMT Feb 25
• SUP 1: 95.030 - Low Jan 28
• SUP 2: 95.000 - Round number support 
• SUP 3: 94.965 - Low Nov 1 ‘23

Aussie 10-yr futures are trading closer to their recent highs and closer to key near-term resistance at 95.315, highs in January and the high so far this month. A clear break of this hurdle is required to highlight a stronger reversal. Until then, the trend direction remains down - trend signals highlight a dominant downtrend. The bear trigger is at 95.030, the Jan 28 low. Clearance of this level resumes the downtrend.

The AUD/USD had a range overnight of 0.7073-0.7124, Asia is currently trading around 0.7120. The AUD lifted above 0.7100 as a strong rebound in risk into the the Nvidia results and a weak USD added to its tailwinds from the CPI print. The AUD continues to stand out as a favoured long and in this environment should continue to be supported on dips. On the day, look for the support toward the 0.7075-0.7095 area to continue to attract demand as the bulls try to build a base from which to attempt another push above the 0.7150-0.7200 area. 

• (Bloomberg) -- Australia’s central bank Governor Michele Bullock said judging the economy is “a little bit more difficult” now than in previous periods when it was raising interest rates, reinforcing her cautious policy stance. “We thought the economy was in balance, maybe it’s a little tighter than we thought. It’s not like we’ve got a situation where it’s very clear what we have to do,” Bullock said, adding that “people have to be patient.”
• “The Australian dollar bull case got more support, as sticky consumer inflation and the RBA’s concerns about a tight labor market boosted expectations for further policy tightening. Gold’s rally will also support the currency, helped by strong bullion exports.” - BBG 
• Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 0.7025(AUD550m), 0.7145(AUD1.04b). Upcoming Close Strikes : 0.7080(AUD703m Feb 27), 0.7250(AUD907m Feb 27) - BBG
• The AUD/USD Average True Range for the last 10 Trading days: 62 Points
• Data/Event: Private Capital Expenditure

 Fig 1: AUD/USD spot Weekly Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P./MNI