EURUSD TECHS: Bull Cycle Extension
- RES 4: 1.1608 High Nov 9 2021
- RES 3: 1.1555 1.382 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing
- RES 2: 1.1495 High Feb 10 2022
- RES 1: 1.1473 Intraday high
- PRICE: 1.1415 @ 10:49 BST Apr 11
- SUP 1: 1.1144 High Apr 3 and a recent breakout level
- SUP 2: 1.0887 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.0741 50-day EMA and a short-term pivot level
- SUP 4: 1.0733 Low Mar 27 and a key short-term support
A bull cycle in EURUSD remains intact and the latest climb reinforces this condition. The breach of 1.1144, the Apr 3 high and bull trigger, confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 1.1555 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support lies at the 1.1144 breakout level. Key support is at 1.0887, the 20-day EMA.
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ERK5 97.50/97.4375, bought for 0.25 in 10k.
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EGBS: Impending 10-year Supply Caps Rallies In Bund Futures
Bund futures have recovered from yesterday evening’s Russia-Ukraine ceasefire and US-Canada tariff reprieve inspired lows. Rallies have been capped by today’s 10-year Bund supply, due at 1030GMT. Futures are -7 ticks at 127.00, with a bearish technical theme still intact.
- The German curve has bear flattened, with 2-year yields 2bps higher and 30-year yields 0.5bps higher. Green leader Habeck re-stated his party’s position that debt brake reform for defence spending is not acceptable, but remains open to negotiation.
- 10-year EGB spreads to Bunds are biased slightly tighter, with the exception of DSLs. The 10-year OAT/Bund spread has pushed below 70bp for the first time since September in recent days.
- PGBs lag peripheral peers at the margin after the expected ousting of the Portuguese government and with 10- & 13-Year paper set to be auctioned this morning.
- Comments from ECB President Lagarde were not market moving, while Simkus and Centeno stuck to previous rhetoric.
- The ECB’s forward-looking wage tracker is due at 1100GMT, though broader macro focus remains on the US CPI report at 1330GMT.
