GBPUSD TECHS: Bull Cycle Extends
Feb-14 18:30
- RES 4: 1.2811 High Dec 6
- RES 3: 1.2767 50.0% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.2667 High Dec 19
- RES 1: 1.2630 High Feb 14
- PRICE: 1.2610 @ 16:37 GMT Feb 14
- SUP 1: 1.2434 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.2333/2249 Low Feb 11 / 3 and a key short-term support
- SUP 3: 1.2161 Low Jan 17 / 20
- SUP 4: 1.2100 Low Jan 10 and the bear trigger
Strong gains on Thursday in GBPUSD, and a continuation higher Friday, strengthens a short-term bullish condition. The pair has traded through the 20- and 50-day EMAs, and breached resistance at 1.2550, the Feb 5 high. Furthermore, 1.2610, 38.2% of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg, has been pierced. This opens 1.2767, the 50.0% retracement. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.2333, the Feb 11 low.
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FED: Williams Sees Economic Strength & Fiscal Uncertainty Behind Higher Yields
Jan-15 18:26
- Speaking in a media scrum after an earlier appearance, NY Fed’s Williams (permanent voter) said Treasury yields haven’t been driven by inflation expectations and that yields instead reflect economic strength and fiscal uncertainty.
- There have been somewhat mixed views of FOMC members on long end yield drivers recently. Goolsbee (’25 voter, dove) on Friday said long-term yields reflected increased growth expectation and weren’t driven by inflation expectations as well, although Gov. Bowman (permanent voter, hawk) on Thursday saw higher inflation expectations at least in part attributing to moves. Barkin (non-voter) meanwhile last week said he saw term premium as a factor.
Williams’ other comments focused on balance sheet policy, with the main takeaway being that reserves are still seen as being above "ample":
- *WILLIIAMS: NOT SEEING SIGNS RESERVES FALLING TO 'AMPLE' LEVEL
- *WILLIAMS: QT NOT A FACTOR IN HIGHER TREASURY TERM PREMIUMS
- *WILLIAMS: AS RESERVES DECLINE EXPECT RRP VOLUME TO MATCH
- *WILLIAMS: NO SIGN OF DISRUPTION IN REPO MARKET, AS IN 2019
- *WILLIIAMS: NO CURRENT PLANS FOR SALES OF FED'S MBS HOLDINGS" - bbg
LOOK AHEAD: Thursday Data Calendar: Weekly Claims, Retail Sales, Import/Export
Jan-15 18:19
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 16-Jan 0830 Initial Jobless Claims (201k, 210k)
- 16-Jan 0830 Continuing Claims (1.867M, 1.872M)
- 16-Jan 0830 Retail Sales Advance MoM (0.7%, 0.6%)
- 16-Jan 0830 Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM (0.2%, 0.5%)
- 16-Jan 0830 Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas (0.2%, 0.4%)
- 16-Jan 0830 Retail Sales Control Group (0.4%, 0.4%)
- 16-Jan 0830 Import Price Index MoM (0.1%, -0.1%), YoY (1.3%, 2.1%)
- 16-Jan 0830 Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM (0.2%, -0.1%)
- 16-Jan 0830 Export Price Index MoM (0.0%, 0.1%), YoY (0.8%, 1.6%)
- 16-Jan 0830 New York Fed Services Business Activity (-5.2, --)
- 16-Jan 0830 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook (-10.9 rev, -5.0)
- 16-Jan 1000 Business Inventories (0.1%, 0.1%)
- 16-Jan 1000 NAHB Housing Market Index (46, 45)
- 16-Jan 1130 US Tsy $95B 4W & $90B 8W bill auctions
MACRO ANALYSIS: MNI US Inflation Insight: Progress But Caution Still Needed
Jan-15 18:16
- We have published and e-mailed to subscribers the MNI US Inflation Insight.
- Please find the full report including MNI analysis and analyst view changes here.
