EM CEEMEA CREDIT: Bulgaria: upgrades come as no surprise
Jul-11 10:23
(BGARIA; Baa1/BBB+/BBB+)
- Following the recent approval of its application to join the Eurozone as early as next year, Bulgaria’s ratings got upgraded to BBB+ at both S&P and Fitch aft-mkt hours y’day.
- We read these actions as no surprise. Both agencies had ratings on positive outlook, which has now been updated to stable.
For context, we look at spread moves since last sovereign € issuance at the end of April ’25. We note that whilst tightening the sovereign curve has also flattened, with z-spread moves of some 40bp for 34s and 50bp for 38s (see chart below).
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - S&P E-Minis Trend Needle Points North
Jun-11 10:21
- In the equity space, the trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and the contract has again traded to a fresh cycle high, today. The recent break of 5993.50, the May 20 high and a bull trigger, highlights a resumption of the uptrend and maintains a price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 6057.00 next, the Mar 3 high. Key support to watch lies at 5808.04, the 50-day EMA.
- EUROSTOXX 50 futures continue to trade at their recent highs. The trend condition is bullish - moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear dominant uptrend. Sights are on 5516.00, the Mar 3 high and the key bull trigger. Clearance of this level would strengthen the bull theme. Key support to watch lies at 5291.25, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would signal a possible reversal.
METALS: Immediate resistance in Platinum Holds
Jun-11 10:18
- The Resistance noted in Platinum in early trade at $1279.35 held well, printed a $1275.45 high.
- Platinum has spiked 9.71% since Monday on expectations of another Annual deficit, Market Tightness, and is also up a whopping 22.85% from the June low.
GBP: Cable Consolidates at 1.3500, JPM on Potential Bullish Trend Exhaustion
Jun-11 10:15
- GBPUSD remains unchanged on Wednesday, broadly consolidating a dip following yesterday’s softer-than-expected labour market data and holding steady around 1.35. Yesterday’s price action prompted cable to reach initial support at its 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average would suggest potential for a deeper correction and expose the 50-day EMA for direction, at 1.3306.
- Separately, EURGBP has moderately extended yesterday’s rally, bolstered by the breach of key short-term resistance around 0.8440. Price developments highlight a stronger reversal, potentially exposing 0.8541, the May 02 high.
- Interestingly, JP Morgan recently noted that GBPUSD continues to bullishly pressure the confluence of longer-term trend line and channel resistance between 1.3557-1.36, but the lows of rally momentum in that area has also triggered bearish momentum divergence signals.
- They also highlighted a potential ending diagonal pattern suggesting bullish trend exhaustion. In their view, a break below the 1.3416 would confirm a short-term bearish trend reversal and target a deeper pullback towards 1.3140-1.3280 support zone. That area that includes the 50-day MA, Jan-Apr trend line, chart pivots, and Apr Fibonacci retracement levels is critical to the health of the broader rally structure.
