SWEDEN: Budget Deficit Widens More Than NDO Forecast; Riksbank In Focus Today
The Swedish budget deficit widened to SEK42.2bln in April, above the National Debt Office’s SEK27.7bln forecast. That sees the cumulative forecast error since the November 2024 borrowing report widen to SEK19bln. This forecast error, alongside the SEK11.5bln of measures announced in the Government’s Spring Budget Bill last month, will need to be accounted for the upcoming forecast/debt issuance plan presented on May 22. Some analysts expect an increase in total borrowing and announced bond auction sizes at that event.
- In April, the primary deficit was SEK41.2bln (vs NDO forecast of SEK34.2bln), with tax revenues SEK7bln lower than forecast.
- Primary focus in Sweden is today’s Riksbank decision at 0830BST/0930CET. The Executive Board is expected to keep rates on hold at 2.25%, but we think there is scope to open the door to another rate cut later this year, conditional on downside growth risks materialising. MNI’s full preview is here:
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Historical bullets
WTI TECHS: (K5) Bear Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: $74.66 - High Jan 22
- RES 3: $72.91 - High Feb 11
- RES 2: $68.72/72.28 - 50-day EMA / High Apr 2 and key resistance
- RES 1: $64.85 Low Mar 5 low and a recent breakout level.
- PRICE: $61.34 @ 07:00 BST Apr 8
- SUP 1: $58.95 - Low Apr 7
- SUP 2: $57.79 - 2.236 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 4 - 11 price swing
- SUP 3: $56.81 - 2.382 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 4 - 11 price swing
- SUP 4: $55.00 - Round number support
A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact following the recent impulsive sell-off. The move down has resulted in the breach of a number of important support levels. The break reinforces a bearish threat and, despite being in oversold territory, signals scope for a continuation of the bear leg. Sights are on $57.79 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial resistance is seen at $64.85, the Mar 5 low and a recent breakout level.
BRENT TECHS: (M5) Trading Closer To Its Recent Lows
- RES 4: $77.75 - High Jan 20
- RES 3: $76.26 - High Feb 20
- RES 2: $72.31/75.47 - 50-day EMA / High Apr 2 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: $67.95 - Low Mar 5 and a recent breakout level
- PRICE: $64.83 @ 06:56 BST Apr 8
- SUP 1: $62.51 - Low Apr 7
- SUP 2: $61.97 - 2.236 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 4 - 20 price swing
- SUP 3: $60.00 - Psychological round number
- SUP 4: $58.26 - 3.000 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 4 - 20 price swing
Brent futures continue to trade in a volatile manner and the contract remains closer to its recent lows. The move down cancels a recent bullish theme. Price has traded cleared both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. Furthermore, the contract has breached $67.87, the Oct 10 ‘24 low. This signals scope for a continuation towards $61.97, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at $67.95, the Mar 5 low.
GOLD TECHS: Monitoring Support At The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: $3223.8 - 3.382 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing
- RES 3: $3200.00 - Round number resistance
- RES 2: $3196.2 - 3.236 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing
- RES 1: $3055.6/3167.8 - High Apr 7 / 3 and bull trigger
- PRICE: $3005.0 @ 06:59 BST Apr 8
- SUP 1: $2956.7 - Low Apr 7
- SUP 2: $2945.3 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: $2880.3 - Low Mar 10
- SUP 4: $2832.7 - Low Feb 28
The trend condition in Gold remains bullish and the latest pull back appears corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend and positive market sentiment. Price has traded through the 20-day EMA. The next key support to watch lies at 2945.3, the 50-day EMA. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on $3196.2, a Fibonacci projection. The bull trigger is 3167.8, the Apr 3 high.
