US: Budget Cmte Vote On Reconcilliation Bill Expected At ~12:00 ET

May-16 14:52

John Bresnehan at Punchbowl News reporting on X that the House Budget Committee is expected to vote at roughly 12:00 ET 17:00 BST to advance the completed Republican reconciliation bill.

  • The vote comes amid ongoing uncertainty over whether hardline conservatives on the panel will vote down the package to buy more time to negotiate deeper spending cuts.
  • The baseline expectation is that the package will advance at some point today but there is a non-negligible chance the Budget markup could be punted into next week, imperilling House Speaker Mike Johnson's (R-LA) self-imposed Memorial Day deadline for handing the package to the Senate.
  • Rep Chip Roy (R-TX), armed with a graphic highlighting the deficit implications of the package, told the panel a few moments ago that the bill "falls profoundly short". He said Congress is "writing cheques we can't cash" and that "he is a no unless something changes..." He doesn't specify if he will vote no today, but appeared robust in his dismissal of the bill.
  • Reminder: If Budget Chair Jodey Arrington (R-TX) drops more than two Republican votes, the package will stall in committee. 

Historical bullets

OPTIONS: Expiries for Apr17 NY cut 1000ET (Source DTCC)

Apr-16 14:51
  • EUR/USD: $1.1200(E605mln), $1.1215-25(E1.3bln), $1.1250(E849mln), $1.1350-60(E919mln)
  • USD/JPY: Y142.80-00($1.1bln), Y145.00($1.4bln)
  • USD/CAD: C$1.4000($1.4bln)
  • AUD/USD: $0.6390-00(A$921mln)
  • USD/CAD: C$1.3950($1.0bln), C$1.4000($2.0bln)

STIR: SOFR Option Update

Apr-16 14:45

Pick-up in downside put structures this morning as underlying futures see-saw off earlier highs. Curves steeper (2s10s +4.486 at 52.876) with the short end still outperforming. Projected rate hike pricing, however, has cooled vs. morning levels (*) as follows: May'25 at -4bp (-4.7bp), Jun'25 at -20.5bp (-21.2bp), Jul'25 at -39.6bp (-40.1bp), Sep'25 -57.6bp (-58.9bp).

  • +3,100 SFRU5 95.62/95.68/95.75/95.87 put condors, 2.25
  • +3,000 SFRU5 95.31/95.68 2x1 put spds, 0.25 net
  • -10,000 SFRU5 96.50/97.00 call spds vs. 95.25/95.75 put spds and +5,000 95.25/95.81 put spds, 8.0

MNI EXCLUSIVE: ECB Sources On Policy Stance

Apr-16 14:31

MNI speaks to ECB sources.- On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com