HUNGARY: Bubor Rates

The race to become next leader of the Conservative Party and therefore next British PM has attracted a significant number of MPs seeking the position, raising concerns in the party that a lengthy leadership race could lead to a period of gov't drift and public criticism for being too internally-focused at a time of rising price pressures on consumers.

• Speaking to the BBC, Bob Blackman MP, who sits on the executive of the 1922 Committee of backbench Conservative MPs raised the prospect of the body raising the threshold of parliamentary support required to get onto the ballot in an effort to slim the contest down before it officially begins.
• Blackman raised the prospect of prospective candidates requiring the support of 20 MPs before being allowed onto the first ballot, then rising to 36 MPs (representing 10% of the parliamentary party) to pass through to the second ballot.
• With 11 prospective candidates having announced so far, a more lenient electoral system could see the contest go on for some time. The 1922 executive will decide on the formal rules of the contest at a meeting later this evening.
• Data from Smarkets shows former Chancellor Rishi Sunak as the bettors favourite to win the contest, with an implied probability of 33.3%, ahead of trade minister Penny Mordaunt on 20.8% and Foreign Secretary Liz Truss with a 16.3% implied probability of winning.

Source: Smarkets

• Gilt has also consolidated most of the NFP sell off, was trading circa 115.03 pre Data, 114.94 is the high so far, now trading at 114.70.
• Nonetheless, UK still lags Germany, which is pushing the Gilt/Bund spread 1.6bp wider, and widest since mid June (13th June).

Chart source: MNI/Bloomberg