BRAZIL: BRL Remains Under Significant Pressure, Flavio Bolsonaro Confirms Report

Mortgage applications saw a small drop last week after a previous push higher, shielded by a further narrowing in spreads to swap rates. 

• MBA composite mortgage applications dipped 1.9% last week, chipping away at a 7% increase the week prior when refis had responded to the latest drop in mortgage rates.
• Refis were -2.8% after 9.3% whilst new purchase applications were -0.6% after 4.5%.
• Levels relative to 2019 average for context: composite 70%, new purchases 63%, refis 74%.
• The minor decline came as the 30Y conforming mortgage rate increased 1bp, after a 7bp decline the week prior capped a 16bp decline in four weeks to its lowest since Sep 2024.
• A narrowing in swap rate spreads likely helped limit this week’s decline, with mortgage rates fading an 8bp increase in the average 10Y swap rate over the week.
• It left the 30Y mortgage rate to 10Y swap rate spread at 270bp for its tightest since Apr 2022, compared to an average 285bp in Q1 and a rough range of 300 +/-5bp for some months after reciprocal tariff announcements in April prompted some additional caution in lending standards.
• Whilst it remains to be seen whether this recent narrowing trend will continue, it will be well received by the Trump administration.

Due to the ongoing, weekly Jobless Claims, Non-Farm Productivity / Unit Labor Costs and Wholesale Inventories / Sales has been suspended. Myriad Fed speakers on tap:

• US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
• 11/06 0730 Challenger Job Cuts (-25.8%, --)
• 11/06 0830 Revelio Public Labor Statistics
• 11/06 0830 Chicago Fed Labor Market Indicators
• 11/06 1100 NY Fed Williams lecture at Goethe Univ. Frankfurt (text, Q&A)
• 11/06 1100 Fed Gov Barr moderated discussion community development
• 11/06 1130 US Tsy $110B 4W, $95B 8W bill auctions
• 11/06 1200 Cleveland Fed Hammack Economic Club of NY (text, Q&A)
• 11/06 1530 Fed Gov Waller CB & Payments panel (no text, Q&A)
• 11/06 1630 Philly Fed Paulson Consumer Finance Inst (text, no Q&A)
• 11/06 1730 StL Fed Musalem fireside chat on policy (no text, Q&A)
• Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI

• RES 4: 1.1728 High Oct 17
• RES 3: 1.1669 High Oct 28 and key resistance 
• RES 2: 1.1577/1618 Low Oct 22 / 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.1542 Low Oct 9 
• PRICE: 1.1480 @ 15:56 GMT Nov 5
• SUP 1: 1.1460 1.382 proj of the Oct 17 - 22 - 28 price swing
• SUP 2: 1.1425 1.500 proj of the Oct 17 - 22 - 28 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.1392 Low Aug 1 and bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 1.1313 Low May 30

A bear leg in EURUSD remains intact and Wednesday’s extension reinforces current conditions. The move down maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Furthermore, the pair has breached a number of important short-term supports, the most recent being 1.1516, the 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - Sep 17 bull leg. This exposes key support at 1.1392, the Aug 1 low. Initial resistance is 1.1542, the Oct 9 low.