UK DATA: Brightmine Pay Deals Fall Back To 3.0%, Continued Stability Seen Ahead
Brightmine median pay awards for the three months to November fell back to 3.0% from 3.3% in September. Most pay awards this year are lower than in 2024, and pay freezes are more common. Brightmine's outlook for 2026 points to continued stability around the 3% level seen ahead, with potential downward pressures from high costs and national insurance contributions.
- The Sep-Nov data highlights that 65% of pay deals are below those agreed for the same employees in 2024. Also, almost all pay deals in this period sat between 2.0% and 4.2% (except for freezes).
- On the outlook for 2026, the release notes that "pay expectations remain centred around a 3% increase, with employers signalling another year of controlled and moderate awards."
- "The April 2025 rise in national insurance contributions is continuing to influence planning, with many employers anticipating a negative impact on next year's pay decisions
- In the year to date, Brightmine notes that the median pay award for 2025 (3.0%) stands 1.5ppts below 2024 (with matched sample analysis showing 74% of awards are lower than in 2024). They also highlight a narrow range of pay deals, with the middle 50% of awards falling between 2.5-3.5%.
- Pay freezes have been a little more common in 2025, accounting for 4.1% of all awards vs 2.8% in 2024.
- The Sep-Nov data spans 1 September - 31 November 2025, covering pay review outcomes for over 118,000 employees.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
GBPUSD TECHS: MA Studies Highlight A Dominant Downtrend
- RES 4: 1.3368 50.0% retracement of the Sep 17 - Nov 4 bear leg
- RES 3: 1.3309 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 1.3284 38.2% retracement of the Sep 17 - Nov 4 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.3208/16 20-day EMA / High Nov 13
- PRICE: 1.3141 @ 06:28 GMT Nov 17
- SUP 1: 1.3085/10 Low Nov 12 / Low Nov 4 & 5 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.2971 1.382 proj of the Sep 17 - 25 - Oct 1 price swing
- SUP 3: 1.2945 50.0% retracement of the Jan 13 - Jul 1 bull leg
- SUP 4: 1.2877 1.618 proj of the Sep 17 - 25 - Oct 1 price swing
GBPUSD continues to trade below a key short-term resistance at the 20-day EMA, at 1.3208. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would signal scope for a stronger corrective cycle and expose the 50-day EMA, at 1.3309. Moving average studies continue to highlight a dominant downtrend. A reversal would signal the end of the correction and a resumption of the downtrend. The bear trigger is 1.3010, the Nov 4 and 5 low.
BOBL TECHS: (Z5) Bearish Theme
- RES 4: 118.600 High Oct 24
- RES 3: 118.360 High Oct 28
- RES 2: 118.270 High Nov 5 118.360/600 High Oct 28 / 24
- RES 1: 117.960/118.133 Low Nov 10 / 50-day EMA.
- PRICE: 117.840 @ 06:06 GMT Nov 17
- SUP 1: 117.800 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 117.710 Low Oct 6
- SUP 3: 117.630 Low Oct 1
- SUP 4: 117.470 Low Sep 15 and a key support
The short-term trend condition in Bobl futures is unchanged, it remains bearish and last week’s sell-off reinforces current conditions. Recent weakness resulted in a breach of 118.043, 61.8% of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 bull cycle. Note that 117.824, the 76.4% retracement, has been pierced. A continuation lower would open 117.630, the Oct 1 low. Initial firm resistance is seen at 118.133, the 50-day EMA.
LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Key Events (Times GMT)
| Date | Time | Period | Event |
| 17-Nov | 1320 | --- | BOE Mann on DMP and MonPol |
| 18-Nov | 1300 | --- | BOE Pill Fireside Chat on MonPol |
| 18-Nov | 1500 | --- | BOE Dhingra on Income Growth and Consumption |
| 19-Nov | 0001 | Oct | Brightmine pay deals for whole economy |
| 19-Nov | 0700 | Oct | Consumer Inflation Report / Producer Prices |
| 20-Nov | 1100 | Nov | CBI Industrial Trends |
| 20-Nov | 1830 | --- | BOE Dhingra Speech on Trade and Tariffs |
| 21-Nov | 0001 | Nov | Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence |
| 21-Nov | 0700 | Oct | Public Sector Finances / Retail Sales |
| 21-Nov | 0930 | Nov | S&P Manuf / Serv / Comp PMIs (p) |
| 21-Nov | 1540 | --- | BOE Pill in Panel at Swiss National Bank |
| 25-Nov | 1100 | Nov | CBI Distributive Trades |
| 26-Nov | 1230 | --- | Chancellor Reeves to deliver UK Budget |
| 26-Nov | 1530 | --- | DMO to publish consultation agenda |
| 27-Nov | 1600 | --- | BOE Greene Speech at Goodbody Conference |
| 01-Dec | 0930 | Nov/Oct | S&P Manuf PMI (f) / BOE Lending to Individuals / M4 |
| 01-Dec | 1530 | --- | DMO to hold FQ4 consultations with investors / GEMMs |
