GBPUSD TECHS: Breaches Trendline Support
- RES 4: 1.3835 High Oct 20 2021
- RES 3: 1.3800 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 1.3681/3789 High Jul 04 / 01 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 1.3555 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.3417 @ 17:02 BST Jul 16
- SUP 1: 1.3371 Low Jun 23 and a key short-term support
- SUP 2: 1.3335 Low May 20
- SUP 3: 1.3245 Low May 19
- SUP 4: 1.3144 38.2% retracement of the Jan 13 - Jul 1 bull cycle
A short-term bear cycle in GBPUSD remains in place - particularly as the sharp intraday rally was sold into the close. This week’s move down reinforces current bearish conditions. The pair has breached both 20- and 50-day EMAs. Tuesday’s move down resulted in a break of trendline support at 1.3440. The trendline is drawn from the Jan 13 low and the breach strengthens a bearish threat, exposing 1.3371 initially, the Jun 23 low. Initial firm resistance to watch is 1.3555, the 20-day EMA.
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GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 1.3800 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 1.3757 1.618 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
- RES 2: 1.3681 1.500 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
- RES 1: 1.3632 High Jun 13
- PRICE: 1.3601 @ 17:15 BST Jun 16
- SUP 1: 1.3456 Low Jun 10
- SUP 2: 1.3337 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.3217 Trendline support drawn from the Jan 13 low
- SUP 4: 1.3140 Low May 12 and key support
The trend condition in GBPUSD remains bullish and price is trading closer to its recent highs. A rising price sequence of higher highs and higher lows, together with a bull set-up in moving average studies, highlights a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.3681 next, a Fibonacci projection. Resistance at 1.3616, the Jun 5 high has been pierced - a bullish development. Support to watch lies at 1.3456, the Jun 10 low.
US: FED Reverse Repo Operation
RRP usage retreats to $140.759B this afternoon from $168.645B Friday, total number of counterparties at 26. Usage had fallen to $54.772B on Wednesday, April 16 -- lowest level since April 2021. Conversely, usage had surged to the highest level since December 31, 2024 on Monday, March 31: $399.167B.
STIR: Narrow Ranges, US Retail Sales Tomorrow
- Fed Funds implied rates for near-term meetings have pushed higher through today’s US session, whilst the Dec’25 has held narrow ranges since the US crossover to consolidate an overnight push higher as markets looked for Israel-Iran de-escalation.
- Cumulative cuts from 4.33% effective: 0bp for Wed, 3.5bp Jul, 18bp Sep, 31.5bp Oct and 47bp Dec.
- The SOFR implied terminal yield of 3.31% (SFRZ6) is 1bp lower on the day as it holds close to ~100bp of cuts for what’s left of the cycle.
- The limited change since the US crossover comes with net gains for US equity futures vs net losses for crude futures and spot gold.
- G7 headlines today have seen Trump unwilling to sign the statement on Israel-Iran and looking at a US-Canada deal being achievable within days or weeks.
- Today’s weak Empire manufacturing release didn’t move the needle, with the headline miss offset by a much-improved outlook within the report.
- Tomorrow sees more notable data including retail sales and import prices for May at 0830ET before industrial production for May at 0915ET. They provide important hard data updates for May heading into the two-day FOMC meeting starting tomorrow.
- MNI Fed Preview: https://media.marketnews.com/Fed_Prev_Jun2025_ba372b9458.pdf
