EM LATAM CREDIT: Brazil's Petrobras, Reaction to Tanure's Bid For Braskem

May-27 13:02

Braskem (BRASKM; Ba3 /BB+ neg /BB+ neg)

“Petrobras wants more power to appoint Braskem board members and directors, sources say” – Reuters

Neutral Take

• Brazil government-controlled energy company Petrobras is one of the majority owners in Brazil based chemical company Braskem and has responded to news of investor Nelson Tanure’s proposal to buy out the other majority stakeholder Odebrecht that has 50.1% of voting shares.

• Petrobras CEO Magda Chambriard made some supportive comments as quoted by Brazil news outlet Valor. The company has sought to divest its stake in Braskem for years, as have the banks who hold Braskem shares as collateral for defaulted loans made to the bankrupt entity formerly known as Odebrecht. Tanure is proposing to buy an interest in a fund which holds the bank’s Braskem shares.

• Petrobras is more interested in increasing its Board of Director participation as it currently only has appointed four out of eleven board members and one director out of seven according to Valor. The company does not appear interested in buying out the Odebrecht stake even though it does have that preference right.

• The market has been skeptical of this transaction as well as the impact it might have on Braskem, which operationally has underperformed for years as well as being burdened with environmental liabilities. Several suitors have come and gone with ultimately no deal being consummated.

• Braskem stock has fallen almost 50% in the past year and much more over the past five years so it might be hard for the banks to stop themselves out.

• Tanure has a track record of getting involved in distressed situations, restructurings and repairing of companies so maybe he can help fix Braskem, which has been struggling for years not just with the environmental liabilities but persistent operational losses.

• Please see our Braskem 1Q 2025 earnings post and our previous post on the Tanure proposal for more information:
https://mni.marketnews.com/4kxCk2I

https://www.mnimarkets.com/articles/businessman-tanure-seeks-to-invest-in-brazils-braskem-1748019979909

• The deal structure reportedly would leave Petrobras and the fund holding Braskem shares as controlling Braskem while Odebrecht would retain 5% of the chemical company.

• BRASKM 2034 bonds were last quoted T+515bps, 71bps wider QTD and 100bps wider YTD. We don’t observe any reaction in the bonds since the news was reported.

Historical bullets

US TSYS: Extraordinary Measures And Cash Look Sufficient To Head Off X-Date

Apr-25 20:32

Treasury has about $164B in "extraordinary measures" available as of April 23 to avoid hitting the debt limit, per its regular report out Friday. That's out of a maximum total of $375B (they have used $211B).

  • With Treasury cash looking healthy (around $600B), that's a fair amount of dry powder to get through the summer months to wait out the debt limit impasse. Tax receipts have looked strong with tariff revenues also starting to boost cash flows, further reducing the near-term urgency to adjust bond issuance.
  • This has also helped push back analyst “x-date” expectations to later in the summer/September. We expect to hear from Treasury about its own x-date assumptions next week.
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US TSYS: Treasury Market Trading Stayed Orderly In April: Fed Report

Apr-25 20:25

Liquidity across financial markets including the Treasury market deteriorated after President Trump's April 2 reciprocal tariffs announcement but market functioning was generally orderly, according to the Federal Reserve's semiannual report on financial stability, released Friday. (PDF link is here)

  • Treasury market liquidity has been poor for years and yields were particularly volatile in early April, contributing to a deterioration in market liquidity, the Fed said.
  • Nevertheless "trading remained orderly, and markets continued to function without serious disruption," according to the report, which looked at information available as of April 11. 

FED: Ex-Gov Warsh: Fed Has Failed To Satisfy Price Stability Remit

Apr-25 20:22

From our Washington Policy Team - Some fairly sharp words today from ex-Fed Governor Warsh on the central bank (who for what it's worth is seen by betting markets as by far the frontrunner for the next Fed Chair):

  • The best way for the Federal Reserve to safeguard its independence is for policymakers to avoid expanding the institution's role over time, including wading into policy areas that are outside its core mission, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, a leading contender to replace Jerome Powell as chair next year, said Friday.
  • "I strongly believe in the operational independence of monetary policy as a wise political economy decision. And I believe that Fed independence is chiefly up to the Fed," Warsh said in a speech at a Group of Thirty event on the sidelines of the IMF meetings. "Institutional drift has coincided with the Fed’s failure to satisfy an essential part of its statutory remit, price stability. It has also contributed to an explosion of federal spending." His speech made no mention of Trump's tariffs or the appropriate monetary policy to deal with them.
  • He said the ideas of data dependence and forward guidance widely adopted by Fed officials are not especially useful and might even be counterproductive. 
    "We should care little about two numbers to the right of the decimal point in the latest government release. Breathlessly awaiting trailing data from stale national accounts -- subject to significant, subsequent revision -- is evidence of false precision and analytic complacency," he said. 
    "Near-term forecasting is another distracting Fed preoccupation. Economists are not immune to the frailties of human nature. Once policymakers reveal their economic forecast, they can become prisoners of their own words. Fed leaders would be well-served to skip opportunities to share their latest musings."