INDIA: BRAZIL: Modi And Lula Hold Call To Discuss Trump Tariffs
The Indian government has noted that Prime Minister Narendra Modi “exchanged views on various regional and global issues of mutual interest,” in a recently concluded call with Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.
- The statement said Modi and Lula agreed to “enhance cooperation in trade, technology, energy, defence, agriculture, health and people-to-people ties,” and “iterated their commitment to take India-Brazil strategic partnership to new heights,” per Reuters.
- Bloomberg reported earlier that Lula planned to call Modi “to talk about President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs, officials in Brasilia and New Delhi said, asking not to be identified to discuss internal matters.”
- Trump’s decision to double tariffs on India to 50%, in retaliation for buying Russian oil, is a risky strategy that could push New Delhi into closer alignment with BRICS partners, including Brazil, Russia, and China. Modi will visit China later this month for the first time since 2018. He will attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Tianjin and meet bilaterally with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
- With Brazil also subject to 50% tariffs, Lula told Reuters yesterday he is in no rush to ring the White House - although his government would not give up on cabinet-level talks - as direct talks with Trump would likely be a "humiliation."
- According to O Globo, Brazilian negotiators will present a response on August 18 to Washington's questions regarding American ethanol in Brazil, corruption, and the use of the Pix payment system.
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US TSYS/SUPPLY: Preview 3Y Note Auction
Tsy futures are near midmorning lows (TUU5 103-20.5, -.38 vs. 103-19.75 low) ahead of the $58B 3Y note auction (91282CNM9) at 1300ET, WI is currently at 3.881%, 9.1bp rich to last month's tail. Results will be available shortly after the competitive auctions closes at 1300ET.
- June auction recap: Treasury futures showed little reaction after $58B 3Y note auction (91282CNH0) tailed 0.5: 3.972% high yield vs. 3.967% WI; 2.52x bid-to-cover vs. 2.56x prior.
- Peripheral stats saw indirect take-up climb to 66.78% vs. 62.37% prior; direct bidder take-up retreated to 18.03% from 23.71% prior; primary dealer take-up 15.19% vs. 13.92% prior.
ITALY AUCTION PREVIEW: On offer this week
MEF has announced it will be looking to sell the following at its auction this Friday, July 11:
- E3.25-3.50bln of the new 3-year 2.35% Jan-29 BTP (ISIN tba)
- E3.00-3.50bln of the 3.25% Jul-32 BTP (ISIN: IT0005647265)
- E1.25-1.75bln of the 3.85% Oct-40 BTP (ISIN: IT0005635583)
GOLD: Central Banks Still Buying; Strong ETF Inflows In June
Demand data from the World Gold Council (WGC) has been updated for June (ETFs) and May (central banks). While investor flows will be sensitive to economic/geopolitical developments and price/technicals, central banks are considered to have more inelastic demand. Latest data indicates another month of strong central bank purchases in May, a trend which should provide structural support to spot prices even if the technical picture has turned less bullish.
- There were ETF inflows equivalent to 74.6 tonnes in June, spearheaded by the US (44.3 tonnes) and Europe (23.1 tonnes). Asian ETFs, which saw huge inflows of 69.3 tonnes in April, saw a more modest 5.3 tonne inflow in June (after a 4.8 tonne outflow in May).
- The stock of gold in Asian ETFs is still substantially smaller than the US and Europe, but the 321 tonnes held in June 2025 is almost double that of a year ago (179 tonnes).
- Central Banks purchased 33.5 tonnes of gold in May, according to WGC data. There were familiar inflows from Poland (6.2 tonnes, though smaller than Feb-Apr purchases), alongside notable purchases from Kazakhstan and Turkey.
- China reported purchases of 1.9 tonnes in May, and more recent reserves data indicates another 2.2 tonnes were added in June. As always, there will be speculation that these figures could be underreporting actual PBOC purchases.
