LATAM: Brazil Mid-Month IPCA Inflation, September Current Account Data Due
- The LatAm calendar will be highlighted by mid-month IPCA inflation data from Brazil, expected to dip to 5.00% Y/y. Brazil will also release their current account balance data and FDI figures for September, while Chile PPI is also due. US CPI headlines today's global economic calendar, possibly being the last report that won’t be adversely impacted by the shutdown until the new year.
- CANADA: The US administration's termination of trade talks with Canada brought overnight losses for the Canadian dollar, with Prime Minister Mark Carney facing a binary choice - either seek to repair ties with the White House or pursue a more aggressive line with the US. So far, there has been no spillover to the Mexican peso.
- USD: Initial weak French PMI data was offset by a stronger-than-expected German services flash PMI, prompting two-way price action for the Euro. For Germany, in addition to the stronger growth signals, an uptick in output charge inflationary pressures added to the hawkish theme of the flash report. However, EURUSD sits modestly lower on the session, perhaps owing to the renewed weakness for gold this morning, providing a marginal boost to the dollar.
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SOFR: Long Setting Most Prominent In Futures On Tuesday, Pockets Of Cover Seen
OI data points to net long setting dominating as SOFR futures ticked higher on Tuesday, with the only short cover of any real note coming in the reds.
| 23-Sep-25 | 22-Sep-25 | Daily OI Change |
| Daily OI Change In Packs |
SFRU5 | 1,469,770 | 1,461,381 | +8,389 | Whites | +39,767 |
SFRZ5 | 1,559,007 | 1,550,994 | +8,013 | Reds | +7,684 |
SFRH6 | 1,180,726 | 1,163,177 | +17,549 | Greens | +11,130 |
SFRM6 | 1,053,819 | 1,048,003 | +5,816 | Blues | +8,905 |
SFRU6 | 930,052 | 938,440 | -8,388 |
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SFRZ6 | 1,074,520 | 1,042,996 | +31,524 |
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SFRH7 | 744,495 | 745,722 | -1,227 |
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SFRM7 | 802,467 | 816,692 | -14,225 |
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SFRU7 | 665,961 | 661,401 | +4,560 |
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SFRZ7 | 717,820 | 709,544 | +8,276 |
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SFRH8 | 431,095 | 436,204 | -5,109 |
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SFRM8 | 368,415 | 365,012 | +3,403 |
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SFRU8 | 276,589 | 270,876 | +5,713 |
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SFRZ8 | 301,116 | 299,920 | +1,196 |
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SFRH9 | 190,007 | 188,377 | +1,630 |
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SFRM9 | 176,432 | 176,066 | +366 |
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US TSY FUTURES: Net Long Setting In TY Futures Noted On Tuesday
OI data points to a mix of net long setting (FV, TY, UXY and WN) and short cover (TU & US) as Tsy futures settled higher on Tuesday, with the only meaningful positioning swing coming via the net long setting in TY futures (~$2.3mln DV01).
| 23-Sep-25 | 22-Sep-25 | Daily OI Change | OI DV01 Equivalent Change ($) |
TU | 4,531,832 | 4,560,564 | -28,732 | -984,506 |
FV | 6,750,221 | 6,733,778 | +16,443 | +725,919 |
TY | 5,477,985 | 5,442,415 | +35,570 | +2,331,635 |
UXY | 2,373,993 | 2,370,888 | +3,105 | +272,902 |
US | 1,834,358 | 1,834,493 | -135 | -19,167 |
WN | 2,019,868 | 2,018,623 | +1,245 | +232,128 |
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| Total | +27,496 | +2,558,912 |
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Bull Cycle In EUROSTOXX50 Futures Intact
- In the equity space, a bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the contract traded to a fresh cycle high on Monday. Price has recently breached the 6700.00 handle and this signals scope for an extension towards 6787.63, a 1.382 projection of the Aug 1 - 15 - 20 price swing. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend and positive market sentiment. Initial support to watch lies at 6625.74, the 20-day EMA.
- EUROSTOXX 50 futures are trading closer to their recent highs. The contract recently cleared resistance around the 20-day EMA - a bullish development - and the subsequent rally reinforces a bullish theme. The move signals potential for a climb towards 5525.00, the Aug 22 high and a bull trigger. On the downside, key support to monitor is 5302.00, the Sep 2 low. First support lies at 5417.44, the 20-day EMA.
