EM LATAM CREDIT: Brazil: Inflation Forecast Reduced - Neutral

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• President Donald Trump described the US-China relationship as "excellent" in a statement announcing a trade agreement with Beijing. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will be grilled on the China deal in testimony before two Congressional panels today.
• White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt will brief reporters for the first time since civil unrest in Los Angeles escalated. Mayor Karen Bass imposed a curfew in downtown areas.
• A federal appeals court extended a short-term reprieve for Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariffs.
• The EU believes trade negotiations with the US are likely to extend past the July 9 deadline.
• The US and Mexico appear close to a deal on steel tariffs.
• The World Bank cut global growth forecasts, citing uncertainty over trade.
• Former special government employee Elon Musk dialled down his feud with Trump.
• 38 House Republicans warned Senate leaders against changing the ‘architecture’ of the ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’ or using ‘budget gimmicks’ to obscure deficit spending.
• Senate Budget Chair Lindsey Graham (R-SC) suggested that the GOP could pursue more reconciliation bills this year.
• The White House polling suggests that individual items within the ‘OBBB’ will play well at the 2026 midterm elections.
• Trump said he is losing hope that Iran will agree to end all uranium enrichment, but stressed Iran will never obtain a nuclear weapon.
• Poll of the Day: 54% of voters approved of the Trump administration's deportation program before the LA unrest.

Full Article: US DAILY BRIEF

• Social housing allocated GBP39bln and schools given more than generally expected. The NHS spending was largely as expected.
• It's going to take some time to go through the details of this to see how credible these plans are.
• And of course the elephant in the room is the 3.5%+1.5% expected NATO spending agreement. The number committed to is 2.6% by 2027 and 3% in the next parliament.
• Full document here.

Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves concludes the Spending Review with two notable announcements on areas of investment. 

• On education Reeves confirms "Overall, I am providing a cash uplift of over £4.5bn a year of additional funding for the core schools budget by the end of the spending review;...am providing investment rising to nearly £2.3bn per year to fix our crumbling classrooms, As well as £2.4bn per year to continue our programme to rebuild 500 schools"
• On healthcare: "...we are investing £10bn to bring our analogue health system into the digital age...I am proud to announce today that this Labour Government is making a record cash investment in our NHS... ... increasing real-terms, day to day spending by 3% per year for every year of this spending review. An extra £29bn per year for the day to day running of the health service."
• For the second time, Reeves comments on policies from Reform UK, claiming the right-wing populists back an 'insurance-based' healthcare system. It remains very unusual for the gov't to take so much time to criticise policies from a relatively small party, compared to the main opposition.