EM LATAM CREDIT: Brazil: EU-Mercosur Deal - Positive
(BRAZIL; Ba1/BB/BB)
"VON DER LEYEN: HAD CALL WITH BRAZIL'S LULA ON EU-MERCOSUR DEAL" - Bbg
Impact on the European agricultural sector has been the biggest stumbling block to signing a trade agreement between the South American trading block and the EU, with France and Poland objecting the most.
Safeguard measures have been proposed if the volume of imports from Mercosur increases by more than 10% or the prices of agricultural commodities fall by 10% or more and that makes it more likely a deal can be approved by a qualified majority of its 27 member states by year end.
China is the major importer of Mercosur products such as Soybeans, crude oil and iron ore with the U.S. being second and Europe third so there is room for growth in trade with the EU, especially given the latest tariff threats.
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US-RUSSIA: Trump Weighing Additional Measures Targetting Russian Oil - BBG/FT
Supporting a Financial Times report yesterday, Bloomberg reports that US President Donald Trump is weighing additional measures targeting Russian oil revenue, following a 25% secondary tariff on Indian exports to the US, announced earlier today.
- Bloomberg notes: “In addition to punishing buyers of Russian energy with tariffs, the Trump administration is considering new sanctions on Moscow’s covert fleet of oil tankers and several entities that enable them to operate, according to people familiar with the matter, who spoke before the administration posted the executive order on India tariffs to social media.”
- The Financial Times reported yesterday: “Blacklisting vessels in the fleet would mark the first time the US has imposed sanctions on Moscow since Trump returned to the White House in January.”
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, wrote on X this morning: “Secondary tariffs would make Russian energy extremely expensive for those who consider it “too cheap” and turn a blind eye to the killing of Ukrainians.”
- Axios reports that Trump is expected to speak with Zelenskyy this afternoon to discuss today's meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Middle East Envoy Steve Witkoff. The leaders could discuss the prospect of an 'air truce' with Russia.
- Recent moves from the White House suggest the Trump administration is pivoting to more robust long-term support for Ukraine, both via a new mechanism to transfer US weapons to Kyiv and through strategic sanctions and tariffs that aim to degrade Russia's oil revenue.
OPTIONS: Expiries for Aug07 NY cut 1000ET (Source DTCC)
- EUR/USD: $1.1500(E1.1bln), $1.1600(E957mln)
- USD/JPY: Y146.50($605mln), Y146.93-05($569mln), Y147.65($1.4bln), Y148.00-15($2.0bln), Y148.50($1.2bln)
- EUR/JPY: Y170.00(E770mln)
- AUD/USD: $0.6500(A$1.2bln), $0.6600(A$2.0bln)
- USD/CAD: C$1.3800($700mln)
- USD/CNY: Cny7.2500($836mln)
FED: Trump Advised to Nominate Temporary Fed Gov, According to BBG Sources
Bloomberg write that Trump’s advisers are encouraging him to nominate a temporary Fed governor to fill the vacant seat on the central bank’s board, according to people familiar with the discussions.
- "Naming a governor to serve out the term for the seat opening soon — set to expire in January 2026 — would give Trump additional time to interview candidates to serve as chair when Jerome Powell’s tenure leading the central bank ends in May of next year, the people said.
- The nominee will need to clear Senate confirmation, a vetting process that has traditionally taken months, but could be expedited if Trump pressures lawmakers to quickly fill the seat."
- The report may lower the odds of Warsh or Hassett being named this week as the replacement for Kugler - and lessens the pressure on the White House to make a final call on Powell's replacement.
