(BRAZIL; Ba1/BB/BB)
• Former President Jair Bolsonaro said that his eldest son Flavio would be his choice to run in the next presidential election in 2026, according to local news outlet Metropoles. We view this as negative as it may cause a fracture in the party just at the time when it needs to unite against Lula to prevent him from getting re-elected.
• BRAZIL USD 2035s were last quoted T+203bp, 5bp wider today and 20bp tighter since June 30th. Local markets were more affected with 5Yr rates up about 12bp and the BRL 1.5% weaker, reflecting a disappointment for a change in government next year.
• Flavio Bolsonaro is a Senator representing Rio de Janeiro and affiliated with the Liberal Party who has in the past faced charges of corruption. Ex-President Bolsonaro was reported as saying that his son would be good for party unity though some might say that Sao Paolo Governor Tarcisio de Freitas would be better to unite the party.
• Freitas was previously thought to be the most likely choice for the ex-president’s endorsement. President Lula is expected to run again in 2026, and recent polls show him beating all likely candidates. Against Freitas Lula would get 46% of the vote vs 39% according to a report by Reuters. In a poll from August 2025, Valor reports that Lula would get 35% vs Senator Flavio Bolsonaro at 14%.
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Sarah Ferris at CNN reports on X, “Senate Dems involved in talks to end shutdown are using election to try to spur GOP to back a framework to temporarily extend ACA with some reforms to reopen govt, per 2 sources. “With that it ends fast; without we stare at each other another week.”