EM LATAM CREDIT: Brazil: Bolsonaro Proposes Son for President – Negative

Dec-05 17:46

(BRAZIL; Ba1/BB/BB)

• Former President Jair Bolsonaro said that his eldest son Flavio would be his choice to run in the next presidential election in 2026, according to local news outlet Metropoles. We view this as negative as it may cause a fracture in the party just at the time when it needs to unite against Lula to prevent him from getting re-elected.
• BRAZIL USD 2035s were last quoted T+203bp, 5bp wider today and 20bp tighter since June 30th. Local markets were more affected with 5Yr rates up about 12bp and the BRL 1.5% weaker, reflecting a disappointment for a change in government next year.
• Flavio Bolsonaro is a Senator representing Rio de Janeiro and affiliated with the Liberal Party who has in the past faced charges of corruption. Ex-President Bolsonaro was reported as saying that his son would be good for party unity though some might say that Sao Paolo Governor Tarcisio de Freitas would be better to unite the party.
• Freitas was previously thought to be the most likely choice for the ex-president’s endorsement. President Lula is expected to run again in 2026, and recent polls show him beating all likely candidates. Against Freitas Lula would get 46% of the vote vs 39% according to a report by Reuters. In a poll from August 2025, Valor reports that Lula would get 35% vs Senator Flavio Bolsonaro at 14%.

Historical bullets

FOREX: USDJPY Bounce Affirms Pullbacks are Technically Corrective

Nov-05 17:43
  • Despite the impressive surge higher for US yields on Wednesday, the USD index is holding at unchanged levels on the day, as a recovery for major equity indices today offsets the most recent greenback enthusiasm. Despite this, the DXY did make fresh 5-month highs, with a firmer-than-expected ISM services PMI supportive.
  • Most of the G10 currency action has been centred around the Yen once more, with USDJPY posting an impressive 140 pip range on Wednesday. Initial risk off during SPAC hours and a moderately hawkish set of BOJ minutes prompted USDJPY to extend its pullback to 152.96, however, the subsequent recovery has been very notable.
  • The pair’s intraday bounce picked up pace in late European trade, printing a new daily high through the London close. A break above yesterday's 154.48 would mark a full reversal of the JPY strength tripped by Katayama's warnings on FX movements on Tuesday - and again shows that USDJPY is a key beneficiary in a higher US yields environment.
  • Today's price action affirms the view that pullbacks are technically corrective in nature, and a break of 154.39/48 supports a rally toward 154.80, the Feb 12th high.
  • The more stable risk sentiment has allowed AUD and NZD to outperform, rising around 0.3% against the greenback, although these advances are yet to erode the prior declines this week.
  • USDCAD remains a touch higher on the day above 1.41, looking to extend its winning streak to five sessions. Importantly, the pair has held an important resistance for now, the top of the bull channel drawn from the Jul 23 low.
  • Higher equities boosted EM FX significantly, with the likes of MXN, ZAR and BRL shrugging off the moves for US yields. USDMXN has now reversed over 1% from intra-day highs, helping the pair edge back below 18.60 in late trade.
  • The Bank of England headlines the economic calendar on Thursday, and is potentially set to be a close call decision between a hold and a 25bp cut.

US: Democrats Harden Stance On Deal To Reopen Govt In Light Of Election Results

Nov-05 17:27

Sarah Ferris at CNN reports on X, “Senate Dems involved in talks to end shutdown are using election to try to spur GOP to back a framework to temporarily extend ACA with some reforms to reopen govt, per 2 sources. “With that it ends fast; without we stare at each other another week.”

  • The report appears to confirm that the ‘blue wave’ overperformance at yesterday’s elections has bolstered Democrats' position that a hardline stance on reopening the government is endorsed by voters.
  • Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) said at a press conference a few moments ago: “Last night [election result] was clear, unmistakable, as a repudiation of Trump and a vindication of what Democrats have been fighting for over the past several months…”
  • Schumer said voters, “know that Democrats are fighting for them and Republicans are doing nothing to address the healthcare crisis. And last night Republicans felt the political repercussions.”
  • Schumer maintained that he will not endorse reopening the government until Republicans, “sit down with us and address the healthcare crisis.” Adds: “That’s the way to end the shutdown. Plain and simple.”
  • When asked if he supports Senator Jeanne Shaheen’s (D-NH) initiative to reopen the government with a bipartisan deal, Schumer says: “I’ve always encouraged Republicans and Democrats to sit down and talk with each other but all Democrats agree that Trump should sit down and talk as a way to solve this.”

PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Update: Santos, CBRE, Mattel Launched

Nov-05 17:13
  • Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
  • 11/05 $1B #Santos Finance 10Y +168
  • 11/05 $750M #CBRE Services 7Y +98
  • 11/05 $600M #Mattel 5Y +130
  • 11/05 $Benchmark Equinix 5Y +85
  • 11/05 $Benchmark Polaris +5Y +200a
  • 11/05 $Benchmark KEPCO 3Y SOFR+62, 5Y +47
  • 11/05 $Benchmark Intercontinental Exchange 3Y +45, +5Y +60
  • 11/05 $Benchmark Apollo Global Mgt 5Y +110a, 10Y +130a
  • 11/05 $Benchmark Transcontinental Gas Pipeline 10Y +120a, 30Y +130a