EM LATAM CREDIT: Brazil: Bolsonaro Convicted, Gets 27 Years - Neutral
(BRAZIL; Ba1/BB/BB)
Conviction was expected, 4-1 verdict of a 5 Supreme Court justice panel and then a 27 year, 3 month sentence for ex-President Jair Bolsonaro for a being part of a criminal organization that planned a coup attempt and an assassination of President Lula Da Silva.
We expect a lengthy appeals process, for among other things it may ask why the entire Supreme Court didn't rule on the allegations, but more short-term we await U.S. President Trump's reaction as well as next steps in the Brazil political drama ahead of next year's presidential election. Hard currency bonds have shown to be immune to the Bolsonaro drama and Brazil politics in general as U.S. macro themes dominate.
Bolsonaro and his supporters will be a factor regardless of this verdict. Witness Cristina Kirchner waving from her balcony, under house arrest convicted of corruption, and celebrating the Peronist/Kirchnerism opposition latest success in the Province of Buenos Aires elections.
Bolsonaro may support Sao Paolo Governor Tarcisio de Freitas as the candidate to carry the flag in next year's presidential election. At a rally last Sunday, Tarcisio called Justice Moraes a tyrant and dictator, according to Valor.
Some have suggested Bolsonaro would instead prefer to support one of his sons. Eduardo, former Brazil congressman, is currently living in the U.S. and has sought amnesty as he claims that he could be arrested in Brazil. He has been a vocal lobbyist to the U.S. Government advocating for his father.
Both Flavio and Carlos are serving in the Brazil government as well. Flavio has been accused of corruption in the past.
Brazil 56s were last quoted T+251bp, 2bp tighter since new issue pricing Sept. 2nd.
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US: MNI POLITICAL RISK - European Leaders Line Up Behind Ukraine
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- At 11:15 ET 16:15 BST, Trump will deliver remarks at the Kennedy Center. He is expected to announce annual honours recipients, but could touch on other market-relevant issues. Trump will sign Executive Orders at 16:00 ET 21:00 BST.
- As of this morning, the National Guard has deployed across DC.
- At 09:00 ET 14:00 BST, Trump will join Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and European leaders for an emergency virtual summit to discuss Trump’s upcoming meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. We have a rundown of what to expect inside.
- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant said the Fed should be open to a 50 basis-point cut in the benchmark interest rate. Bessent said he hopes CEA Chair Stephen Miran will be confirmed to the Fed board in time for the September policy meeting.
- Trump’s nominee to lead the BLS, EJ Antoni, has received a lukewarm reception from economists across the political spectrum. Antoni faces an uncertain Senate confirmation process.
- The Republican Chair of the House Select Committee on China criticised Trump’s semiconductor revenue-sharing deal.
- Former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown confirmed he will run for re-election, boosting Democrats’ long-shot chance of flipping the Senate.
- The State Department's human rights report on Brazil highlights domestic political issues that the Trump administration used to justify a 50% tariff rate.
- Poll of the Day: Small business optimism rose in July to slightly above the 52-year average.
Full Article: US DAILY BRIEF
FOREX: JP Morgan Believe A Test Of 1.22 EUR/USD Target Remains Reasonable
JP Morgan believe the underlying drivers of bullish EURUSD views remain in play, which improves the backdrop for further strength and suggests “a test of our 1.22 target is still reasonable”.
- They write that “even though the market-observed EUR/USD level has been range-bound, its fair value based on real yields and other drivers has steadily risen to 1.14, from 1.09 two months ago”. Breaking down the key drivers of EURUSD strength: “The EU/ German fiscal impact on EUR/USD remains unchanged but is already in the price; US moderation should be worth more, as should concerns around Fed independence. The Ukraine / Russia ceasefire should still provide a boost of ~2.5% if realised, but the bar for delivery is high”.
- JP Morgan note that “beyond the euro, the macro landscape remains conducive to USD weakness as it is characterised by declining US real yields, US growth catch-down, asymmetric risks around Fed easing, concerns about Fed independence and improving growth momentum ex-US”.
- Prior to yesterday’s US CPI report, Bank of America also recommended EURUSD longs, targeting 1.20 (spot ref 1.1612, stop 1.1392). They noted that “mixed US data over the past few months has injected two-way risk, but we view the more recent July data (NFP and ISM Svc in particular) as reigniting stagflationary concerns; something we view as USD negative”. On the EUR leg, they believe “the bar for positive European surprises on the policy/economic front is low (and even lower than before)”.
US: Tsy Sec Bessent on BBG TV Live
Treasury Secretary Bessent, interviewed on Bloomberg TV: "I think we could be heading into a series of rate cuts here, and could start with 50bps in September"
- "One of the most politicized governors [Kugler] just left the board"
- If data had been accurate, it's possible Fed cuts earlier, we should be 150, 175bps lower on rates by now.
- "We'll see" on how quickly Miran can be confirmed as Fed nominee. Is "hopeful" for September meeting
- "There is no accountability" at the Fed, in reference to renovations project
- Trump is concerned over the foundations at the Fed
- Would not expect Miran to stay on beyond the remainder of Kugler's term
When asked on whether BLS could suspend NFP releases on quality concerns - seems to talk down comments of BLS nominee as being made outside of office, akin to when Bessent called for a Shadow Fed chair.
- We're concerned on integrity of data, what we want is "good" data. Antoni is "well qualified" as BLS chief, and was there through the interview process.
