EM LATAM CREDIT: Braskem: Restructuring? - Negative

Jun-13 16:56

(BRASKM; Ba3/BBneg/BB)

"The tough dispute between Rothschild and Houlihan Lokey for the Braskem mandate" - Veja Negocios

Brazil weekly news magazine Veja, owned by media conglomerate Grupo Abril, reported that top restructuring advisors were competing to negotiate a debt restructuring with creditor banks with a decision expected June 16th.

BRASKM bonds were lower again today with 2034s quoted down 87c to USD82.68 which is about 4 points lower in the past couple of days, 7 points since May month end and 13 points lower QTD.

To put this in context, Braskem has been struggling for years with continued provisioning for the Algoas environmental disaster as well as operational problems.

The company reported high net debt leverage of 7.92x as of 1Q 2025. Braskem said they had USD2bn in cash to pay for up to 33 months of debt maturities plus they had a USD1bn revolving credit line with banks.

A group of top Brazil banks hold Braskem stock (50.1% of the total outstanding) as collateral for defaulted Odebrecht (aka Novenor) loans and have waited for years to liquidate always hoping for a higher stock price and winding up with just the opposite.

Petrobras owns 47% of Braskem common stock. Their CEO Magda Chambriard has recently been very public and vocal about wanting new management as well as a larger role in decision making.

Meanwhile, businessman Nelson Tanure who is known for getting involved in repairing and restructuring companies has been negotiating with the banks to buy some or most of their stake but not a controlling interest.

This has led to some local media reports of a potential debt restructuring which has triggered a sell off in the bonds. We posted about this numerous times in the past days if you would like to discuss the issue further. Here is the link to the previous post yesterday for more information: https://mni.marketnews.com/400kaia

Leia mais em: https://veja.abril.com.br/coluna/radar-economico/a-dura-disputa-do-rothschild-e-da-houlihan-lokey-pelo-mandato-da-braskem/

 

Historical bullets

STIR: Next Fed Cut Only Fully Priced For Oct Ahead Of Thu Data Deluge

May-14 16:55
  • Fed Funds implied rates have pushed to new recent highs over the past two hours, with the Dec 2025 rate at levels last seen on Feb 24.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.33% effective: 2.5bp Jun, 9bp Jul, 22bp Sep, 34bp Oct and 49bp Dec.
  • The SOFR implied terminal rate is at 3.48% (SFRZ6) at what would be its highest close since Mar 27.
  • Headlines have been relatively light for the sustained move, although the step did come after Bloomberg headlines that China is suspending export controls applied to 28 US entities in a sign of some further trade de-escalation as some eye the likelihood of a temporary pause of 20% “fentanyl” tariffs.
  • The moves came some time before the US and Qatar announced an economic exchange worth at least $1.2trn but with only vague details in the White House statement.
  • Tomorrow sees a particularly heavy morning, with retail sales, PPI inflation, jobless claims plus Empire & Philly Fed manufacturing reports all at 0830ET.
  • Powell then talks on the framework review at 0840ET which could limit its market impact but will be watched closely nevertheless. 
image

FOREX: USD Index Fully Reverses Monday Surge Before Stabilising

May-14 16:44
  • Tuesday’s theme of a weakening US dollar extended today, helped lower by major equity benchmarks consolidating their recent strength and headlines surrounding trade talks providing an additional greenback headwind. The US and South Korea agreed to share a mutual understanding of the principles they hold for operating foreign exchange markets and to continue discussions on FX policy. The headlines spurred some USDKRW weakness, which then filtered through to a broader dollar move against G10 peers.
  • Price action prompted the USD index to bridge the gap to last Friday’s close, notably eroding the entirety of the US/China tariff reprieve inspired rally to start the week.
  • Hardest hit on Wednesday was USDJPY, which has traded in an impressive 206 pip range. The Japanese yen had been trading in a relatively weak manner amid the risk sentiment surge, however, discussions on FX policy being discussed between other administrations prompted some speculative yen appreciation. USDJPY traded as low as 145.61, and was down as much as 1.27% before stabilising. The move did fall just shy of last Friday’s close at 145.37. Amid a broader stabilisation for the greenback, USDJPY has pared roughly half the moves and stands around 146.50 as we approach the APAC crossover.
  • Elsewhere, the likes of AUD and NZD are underperforming (down around 0.45%), although they still remain among the best performers in G10 this week. For AUDUSD, Monday’s move lower was considered corrective and another test above 0.6500 today reinforces the underlying bullish tone. Further strength would open 0.6528, the Nov 29 high, although there appears scope for a more protracted recovery towards the US election related highs at 0.6688.
  • Thursday’s APAC session will be highlighted by the Australian unemployment report, before the focus turns to UK GDP. In the US, PPI and Retail Sales data are scheduled, which will be followed by Fed Chair Powell speaking.

US TSY FUTURES: BLOCKs: Jun'25 2Y Sale, 10Y Ultra Buy

May-14 16:28
  • -6,916 TUM5 103-07.25, sell through 103-07.38 post time bid at 1218:29ET followed by
  • +3,500 UXYM5 111-24, post time offer at 1220:20ET