EM LATAM CREDIT: Braskem: Petrobras Open to IG4 Proposal - Positive

Aug-29 18:38

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(B2neg/BB--/BB--) "Petrobras Open to IG4 Proposal for Braskem Control: Reuters" - Bbg The proposal...

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FED: Powell - Will Receive A Good Amount Of Data In Coming Months

Jul-30 18:37
  • Overall, "For the time being, we're well positioned to learn more about the likely course of the economy and the evolving balance of risks before adjusting our policy stance. We see our current policy stance as appropriate to guard against inflation risks. We're also attentive to risks on the employment side of our mandate. In coming months, we will receive a good amount of data that will help inform our assessment of the balance of risks and the appropriate setting of the federal funds rate."
  • Onto the Q&A.

FED: Powell - Policy Well Positioned

Jul-30 18:36
  • Powell steps to the podium, starting with the usual language in his opening statement. He says current policy leaves the FOMC "well positioned"
  • Echoing the statement, Powell says that "Recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity has moderated", which "largely reflects a slowdown in consumer spending. In contrast, business investment in equipment and intangibles picked up from last year's pace", though housing remains weak.
  • Labor market conditions "have remained solid" and are "broadly in balance".
  • Powell notes that inflation readings are "little changed" since the beginning of the year but points out that services inflation has continued to ease but tariffs are "pushing up prices in some categories of goods".
  • "Higher tariffs have begun to show through more clearly to prices of some goods, but their overall effects on economic activity and inflation remain to be seen." He notes that it "seems" as a base case, the effects from tariffs could be "short lived" for inflation. "But it is also possible that the inflationary effects could instead be more persistent, and that is a risk to be assessed and managed."

STIR: Mild Dovish Reaction To FOMC Statement

Jul-30 18:19
  • Dovish reaction has slowly built to the FOMC statement, but remains limited and already appears contained with some paring of the initial move.
  • The largest declines in implied yields are currently 2.5bp (since the decision) through SFRH6-U6, broadly reverses the day’s climb in yields after robust economic data.
  • Fed Funds cumulative cuts from 4.33% effective: 17bp Sep (vs 15.5bp pre decision), 28bp Oct, 45.5bp Dec (vs 44bp), 54.5bp Jan and 67bp Mar (vs 65bp).
  • One potential added factor at play at least at the margin, Bloomberg also reports that Comex copper prices initially tumbled 16% following Trump signing a proclamation of 50% tariffs on semi-finished copper imports that excluded refined metal. 
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