US TSYS: Bonds Pare Midweek Support, Weekly Claims Ahead, MNI Hosts SF Daly
Jul-10 10:59
- Treasuries are trading near steady to mixed, curves twist mildly steeper with bonds unwinding a fraction of Wednesday's rally. Similar moves in EGBs overnight, Gilts off Asia hour highs, while a bearish theme in Bunds remains intact.
- Currently, the Sep'25 10Y contract trades -.5 at 111-08 (111-05 low / 111-13.5 high), initial technical support below at 110-21.5/17 (Low Jul 8 / 61.8% of the May 22 - Jul 1 bull leg), resistance to watch is at 111-28, the Jul 3 high.
- Economic data limited to weekly jobless claims at 0830ET, est 235k vs 233k prior, continuing claims est 1.965M from 1.964M prior.
- Scheduled Fed speakers: StL Fed President Musalem moderated discussion on the economy (livestreamed) at 0900ET. Meanwhile, MNI hosts a moderated discussion with SF Fed President Mary Daly at 1430ET.
- Treasury auctions include $80B 4W & $70B 8W bills at 1130ET, $22B 30Y Bond auction re-open (912810UK2) at 1300ET.
- Projected rate cuts through year end remain largely steady after yesterday's rally, Dec'25 holding just above -50bp.
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Bull Cycle In Oil Futures Remains Intact
Jun-10 10:57
- On the commodity front, a bullish theme in Gold remains intact and the latest pullback appears corrective. Medium-term trend signals are bullish - moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on $3435.6 next, the May 7 high. A break of this hurdle would strengthen bullish conditions. On the downside, the next support to monitor is $3242.4, the 50-day EMA.
- In the oil space, WTI futures are trading higher this week, extending the current bull cycle. The contract has cleared the 50-day EMA and this signals scope for an extension towards $67.14, the 76.4% retracement of the Apr 2 - 9 bear leg. It is still possible that the recovery since early May is a correction. MA studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant medium-term downtrend. Support to watch lies at $59.74, the May 30 low. A break would highlight a potential bearish reversal.
GILT SYNDICATION: New 1.75% Sep-38 I/L gilt: Priced
Jun-10 10:55
- Reoffer: 100.061 to yield 1.7449%
- Spread set earlier: 1.125% Nov-37 I/L gilt +11.75bp (guidance was +11.75/+12.25bps)
- Size: GBP5.5bln (MNI expect GBP3.5-5.0bln nominal )
- Books closed in excess of GBP61bln (inc JLM interest of GBP5.5bln)
- Hedge ratio 55% vs 1.125% Nov-37 I/L gilt
- Maturity: 22-Sep-38
- Exp. Settlement: 11-Jun-25 (T+1)
- Coupon: 1.75% SA, ACT/ACT, short first to 22-Sep-25
- ISIN: GB00BMY62Z61
- Joint Leads: Barclays (B&D/DM), Citi, Nomura, RBC
From market source / DMO / MNI colour
PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Roundup: Lloyds, ANZ & CAF on Tap
Jun-10 10:51
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 06/10 $500M CAF WNG Perp5.5 7.125%a
- 06/10 $Benchmark Lloyds 4NC3, 4NC3 SOFR, 11NC10
- 06/10 $Benchmark ANZ 3Y +60a, 3Y SOFR, 11NC10 +165a
- 06/10 $Benchmark Bahamas investor calls
- $3.05B Priced Monday
