US TSYS: Bonds Lead Rebound Off Early Lows, S&P/Nasdaq Climb To New Highs
Jul-10 19:44
- Treasuries look to finish mixed Thursday, off early session lows, curves twist flatter with Bonds leading the rebound in late trade (USU5 +4 at 114-06): 2s10s -0.913 at 47.371, 5s30s -2.776 at 93.272. Markets traded with a positive tone, shrugging off tariff-related event and pass-through inflation risks to focus on economic data.
- The latest weekly claims showed a further improvement in seasonally-adjusted initial claims, though the continued elevation in continuing claims kept the broader theme of a 'low firing, low hiring' labor market very much intact going into the second half of the year. Initial jobless claims were below expected at 227k (235k consensus, 232k prior rev from 233k) in the Jul 5 week. Continuing claims were exactly in line at 1,965k (1,965k expected, prior rev from 1,964k)
- SF Fed President Daly said "the economy's in a good place and policy's in a good place. So I see two cuts as a likely outcome," she told a MNI Livestreamed Connect event, adding it's possible that a large tariffs-driven increase in inflation does not materialize.
- Earlier, StL Fed Pres Musalem sounded a little dovish on incoming inflation data, emphasizing that on a 3-month basis there have been "very positive inflation trends in core and headline [PCE] in goods and in services, and those are very welcome developments".
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AUDUSD TECHS: Bullish Trend Sequence
Jun-10 19:30
- RES 4: 0.6603 High Nov 11 ‘24
- RES 3: 0.6582 High Nov 12 ‘24
- RES 2: 0.6550 61.8% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
- RES 1: 0.6538 High June 5
- PRICE: 0.6518 @ 16:39 BST Jun 10
- SUP 1: 0.6458/6408 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: 0.6357 Low May 12
- SUP 3: 0.6275 Low Apr 14
- SUP 4: 0.6181 Low Apr 11
The trend condition in AUDUSD is unchanged, it remains bullish and the pair continues to trade closer to its recent highs. Key support lies at 0.6408, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to highlight a potential short-term reversal. The pair has recently cleared a key short-term resistance at 0.6515, the May 7 high, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. Sights are on 0.6550, a Fibonacci retracement.
US TSYS: Narrow Ranges Ahead Midweek CPI Inflation Data
Jun-10 19:29
- Treasuries look to finish mixed, off midmorning highs on narrow ranges and light volume (TYU5 under 870k). Market focus on Wednesday morning's key CPI inflation data at 0830ET.
- Analyst unrounded estimates see core CPI inflation accelerating mildly to 0.27% M/M (median, 0.28% average) in May after 0.24% M/M in April. We’ve seen an unrounded range of 0.23-0.34% M/M, with some sizeable discrepancies in used cars and lodging away from home as well as a CPI-specific airfares.
- Officials are still working out technical details as US/China trade talks are expected to reconvene in London at 0800 PM (local time). "LUTNICK: CHINA TALKS WENT REALLY REALLY WELL .. TALKS COULD GO INTO TOMORROW IF NEED BE" Bbg.
- No new developments from California as US Marines deployed to quell any deportation unrest.
- Stocks gaining slightly after the bell after some late program selling tempered support with focus on Wednesday morning's CPI inflation data.
- Cross asset roundup: Bbg US$ index scaling back support late (BBDXY +.99 at 1210.39); crude weaker (WTI -.59 at 64.70), Gold making modest gains: +5.22 at 3331.40.
US-CHINA: Lutnick: Talks Going Well, Could Run Into Wednesday
Jun-10 19:29
Wires reporting that US Commerce Secretary Lutnick says the US-China trade talks in London “went really really well" (per Bloomberg), telling reporters that he hoped talks would conclude Tuesday evening but could extend into Wednesday.
- S&P emini continuous futures extend gains to the best intraday levels since Feb 24, touching 6049.50, up 0.6% on the session.
- Otherwise, little reaction seen outside of equities, with the dollar briefly gaining on the headlines but then pulling back.
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