CROSS ASSET: Bonds and FX Month End Extensions
Aug-28 08:35
Bloomberg Bonds:
- US Tsys: +0.11yr (decent, just above Aug average).
- EU Govies: +0.03yr (tiny).
- UK Govies: -0.02yr (non event).
MS Bonds:
- US Tsys: +0.11yr (decent, just below their Aug average).
- EU Govies: +0.05yr (small).
- UK Govies: -0.04yr (non event).
Barclays FX:
- Their Model suggest just a Weak Dollar selling signal vs most majors, and neutral signals against the EUR and JPY.
Deutsche FX:
- Their signal is so Weak that they don't have a strong conviction either way.
Nomura FX:
- Nomura's G10 FX model suggest that the moves in Global Equities and FI rebalancing flows lead to the following signals for Month End: Sell EUR/AUD, Buy AUD/JPY, Buy NOK/SEK, Sell EUR/CAD, Sell EUR/NZD. Most other signals across G10 are closer to neutral
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SPAIN DATA: Domestic Demand Fuels Another Strong GDP Print
Jul-29 08:32
Spain continues to cement itself as the post-covid Eurozone growth engine, with Q2 flash GDP growing 0.7% Q/Q (vs 0.6% cons and prior). Sequential growth has been above 0.6% for the last eight quarters.
- Domestic demand was solid in Q1, contributing 0.9pp. External demand was a modest drag to the tune of 0.1pp.
- Household consumption rose 0.8% Q/Q, after slowing a little to 0.5% in Q1. This is consistent with the solid growth in retail sales and improvement in consumer confidence seen through Q2. Meanwhile, Spain’s record low unemployment rate will also be providing a tailwind to consumption.
- Gross fixed capital formation rose 1.6% Q/Q (vs 1.9% prior), while Government consumption was -0.1% Q/Q (vs -0.5% prior). Exports rose 1.1% Q/Q (vs 1.7% prior) while imports grew 1.7% Q/Q (vs 1.5% prior).
- On the production side, industry grew 0.8% Q/Q, while services saw more impressive 1.2% Q/Q growth. The services PMI was in expansionary territory through Q2.
- Hours worked rose 0.3% Q/Q, while real productivity per hour was 0.5% Q/Q. We wrote last week that Increased employment rates, and by extension hours worked, has been a key driver of Spain's economic outperformance post-covid. Importantly, this has also come alongside improving real productivity metrics.
MNI: UK JUN M4 MONEY SUPPLY +0.3% M/M, +3.3% Y/Y
Jul-29 08:30
- MNI: UK JUN M4 MONEY SUPPLY +0.3% M/M, +3.3% Y/Y
MNI: UK BOE JUN MORTGAGE APPROVALS 64,167
Jul-29 08:30
- MNI: UK BOE JUN MORTGAGE APPROVALS 64,167
- UK BOE JUN SECURED LENDING GBP5.34 BLN
- UK BOE JUN CONSUMER CREDIT GBP1.42 BLN
