INDIA: Bond Wrap

Aug-21 05:25
  • Central Bank Governor indicating rates on hold until inflation shows signs of settling.
  • Market very quiet ahead of PMI data tomorrow.

2YR 6.692% 5YR6.766% 10YR6.851% (-0.5bp) 30YR 6.954%

Historical bullets

LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)

Jul-22 05:23
Date UK Period Event
24-Jul 0001 July Brightmine pay deals for whole economy
24-Jul 0930 July S&P Global Flash PMIs
25-Jul 1100 July CBI Industrial Trends
29-Jul 0930 June BOE M4/ Lending to Individuals
29-Jul 1100 July CBI Distributive Trades
30-Jul 0001 July BRC Monthly Shop Price Index
01-Aug 0930 July S&P Global/ CIPS UK Final Manufacturing PMI
01-Aug 1200 - Bank Of England Interest Rate
01-Aug 1230 - BoE Press Conference
05-Aug 0930 July S&P Global/ CIPS UK Final Services/Composite PMI
06-Aug 0001 August BRC-KPMG Shop Sales Monitor
06-Aug 0930 July S&P Global/ CIPS UK Construction PMI
13-Aug 0700 June/July Labour Market Survey
14-Aug 0700 July Consumer inflation report/ Producer Prices

US TSYS: Tsys Futures Steady, Curve Flattens As Market Rethinks "Trump Trade"

Jul-22 05:21
  • Treasury futures initially sold off a touch after China lower the LPR, although we have since recovered that move to trade little changed today. TUU4 trades - 00⅛ at 102-15, while TYU4 is + 02+ at 110-29, ranges have been tight today, while volumes have been below average.
  • The treasury curve has flatten, reversing some of the curve steepening that has occurred as a part of the "Trump Trade", although it should be noted that betting markets have not really swung back in favor of the democrats. This morning the 2y is -0.7bps at 4.504%, while the 10yr is trading -1.6bps at 4.223%
  • Projected rate cut pricing into year end look steady to mixed vs. late Thursday levels (*) -- Sep gains while Nov and Dec decline: July'24 at -4.5% w/ cumulative at -1.1bp at 5.318%, Sep'24 cumulative -25.9bp (-25.2bp), Nov'24 cumulative -40.6bp (-41.1bp), Dec'24 -62.9bp (-64.6bp)
  • looking ahead today we have Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, the Fed is in a policy blackout until August 1.

LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)

Jul-22 05:18
Date Time Country Event
23-Jul 800 EU ECB's Lane at ECB/IMF conference in Frankfurt
23-Jul 1500 EU Consumer Confidence Indicator (p)
24-Jul 700 DE GFK Consumer Climate
24-Jul 745 EU ECB's de Guindos at ECB/IMF conference
24-Jul 800 ES PPI
24-Jul 815 FR S&P Global Flash PMI (p)
24-Jul 830 DE S&P Global Flash PMI (p)
24-Jul 900 EU S&P Global Flash PMI (p)
24-Jul 1300 EU ECB's Lane at ECB/IMF conference
25-Jul 745 FR Manufacturing Sentiment
25-Jul 900 EU M3
25-Jul 900 DE IFO Business Climate Index
25-Jul EU ECB's Cipollone at G20 Fin min/central bank meeting
25-Jul 1400 BE BNB Business Sentiment
25-Jul 1600 EU ECB's Lagarde attends Paris Summit