CHINA: Bond Futures Steady as Equities Rebound
Dec-17 03:24
- As equities rebound after two days of losses, bond futures are steady this morning moving only marginally higher.
- The China 10-Yr future is up +0.06 at 107.96 as it nears the 20-day EMA of 107.99.
- The 2-Yr future is up +0.01 at 102.42, atop the 20-day EMA of 102.42. Were it to break below, downside resistance is via the 50-day EMA of 102.40.
- Cash is steady with the 10-Yr at 1.84%, down -0.5bps this morning and the 2-Yr at 1.39%
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US TSY FLOWS: BLOCK SELL FVZ5
Nov-17 03:13
SELL 3500 of FVZ5 traded at 109-05, post-time 13:53:36 AEDT (DV01 $149,331). The contract is currently trading at 109-05, +0-01 from closing levels.
STIR: RBA Dated-OIS Holding Post-Jobs Firming
Nov-17 03:05
Interest rate expectations in Australia out to mid-2026 have firmed just shy of 10bps over the past week, with October’s employment data as the key driver
- The labour market normalised, with unemployment returning to 4.3% after September’s 4.5% spike. Employment rose 42.2k (all full-time) following 12.8k in September.
- OIS pricing now implies just a 1% probability of a 25bp December cut (9% pre-data), with cumulative easing of 9bps priced by mid-2026 (down from 17bps pre-data).
- Even still, as previously noted, markets may still be overestimating the likelihood of further cuts, given that rising annual inflation has historically ended RBA easing cycles.
Figure 1: RBA-Dated OIS – Current Vs. Pre-Jobs
Source: Bloomberg Finance LP / MNI
JGBS AUCTION: 10-year Inflation-Linked Supply - Poll
Nov-17 03:02
*JAPAN INFLATION BOND SALE MAY HAVE 98.80 LOWEST PRICE: POLL - BBG
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