CZECHIA: Bond Auction Attracts Strong Demand

• RES 4: 1.4415 High Apr 1
• RES 3: 1.4296 High Apr 7 
• RES 2: 1.4120 50-day EMA 
• RES 1: 1.3906/3972 High Apr 17 / 20-day EMA  
• PRICE: 1.3839 @ 08:04 BST Apr 29
• SUP 1: 1.3781 Low Apr 21 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 1.3744 76.4% retracement of Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull run
• SUP 3: 1.3696 Low Oct 10 2024
• SUP 4: 1.3643 Low Oct 9 ‘24 

The trend condition in USDCAD is unchanged, the outlook remains bearish. A fresh cycle low on Apr 21 highlights a resumption of the bear cycle and signals scope for a continuation near-term. Potential is seen for a move towards 1.3744, a Fibonacci retracement. Moving average studies are in a bear mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. First resistance to watch is 1.3972, the 20-day EMA.

ECB Cipollone's speech titled "Navigating a fractured horizon: risks and policy options in a fragmenting world" here: 

Highlights:

• "Recent moves in exchange rates, bond yields and equities, suggest that US markets have not been playing their usual role as a safe haven in this particular episode of stress. This potentially has far-reaching longer-term implications for capital flows and the international financial system".
• " Trade policy uncertainty has led to a broader rise in global economic policy instability, which is stifling investment and dampening consumption. Our research suggests that the recent increase in trade policy uncertainty could reduce euro area business investment by 1.1% in the first year and real GDP growth by around 0.2 percentage points in 2025-26"
• "ECB staff estimates suggest that the observed increase in financial market volatility might imply lower GDP growth of about 0.2 percentage points in 2025".
• "Over the medium term, tariffs are set to have an unambiguously recessionary effect, both for countries imposing restrictions and those receiving them".
• " The inflationary effects of trade fragmentation are more uncertain."..."The short to medium-term effects may even prove disinflationary for the euro area, where real rates have increased and the euro has appreciated following US tariff announcements".

• RES 4: 0.6550 61.8% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg  
• RES 3: 0.6528 High Nov 29 ‘24
• RES 2: 0.6471 High Dec 9 ‘24
• RES 1: 0.6450 Intraday high 
• PRICE: 0.6421 @ 07:59 BST Apr 29 
• SUP 1: 0.6344/6307 Low Apr 24 / 50-day EMA  
• SUP 2: 0.6181 Low Apr 11  
• SUP 3: 0.6116 Low Apr 10 
• SUP 4: 0.5915 Low Apr 9 and key support  

The trend condition in AUDUSD is unchanged, it remains bullish and the pair is trading at its recent highs. Price has recently breached a key resistance at 0.6409, the Dec 9 ‘24 high. This breach reinforces bullish conditions and signals scope for a continuation higher near-term. Sights are on 0.6471 next, the Dec 9 2024 high. Initial key support to monitor is 0.6307, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA would be a concern for bulls.