FOREX: BofA Wary Of Near-Term Upside Risks, But Remain Longer Term Bears
Jun-05 13:58
While Bank of America note that they “remain core USD bears”, they caution that “near-term upside USD risks cannot be ignored”.
- They believe that “market narratives regarding the impact of tariff and fiscal uncertainty are well developed, and negative risk premia remains embedded in the USD. Finding the fiscal "sweet spot" remains challenging but not impossible for U.S. Congress, and the Administration may be incentivized to ultimately lower the temperature on the trade war even further”.
- That said, Bank of America believe that “the most likely near-term catalyst for USD upside lies in the ongoing U.S. data resilience or even a reacceleration, even if temporary”.
- Still, over the longer run, they view the impacts “of a U.S.-induced global trade war as ultimately keeping the USD as the main relief valve for the economy, especially from a starting point of elevated valuations. We would expect any near-term USD rallies to ultimately be seen as selling opportunities, barring major policy and economic shifts”.
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Historical bullets
USD: Gathering downside momentum
May-06 13:55
- Another leg lower for the USDJPY, and the broader Dollar, sinking to session lows against the SGD, CZK, GBP, EUR, SEK, NOK, NZD and AUD.
- Next focus in the USDJPY comes at 141.97.
- While the Yields are doing little, the Emini and wider US Equities are pushing lower, and immediate support for the Emini (ESM5) comes at 5601.75.
EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (M5) Bull Cycle Intact
May-06 13:54
- RES 4: 5864.93 200-dma
- RES 3: 5837.25 High Mar 25 and a bull trigger
- RES 2: 5773.25 High Apr 2
- RES 1: 5724.75 High May 2
- PRICE: 5629.50 @ 14:43 BST May 6
- SUP 1: 5527.21 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 5355.25/5127.25 Low Apr 24 / 21 and a key support
- SUP 3: 4996.43 76.4% retracement of the Apr 7 - 10 bounce
- SUP 4: 4832.00 Low Apr 7 and the bear trigger
Recent gains in the e-mini S&P reinforce current bullish conditions.The contract has breached the 50-day EMA, at 5622.87. A continuation of the bull phase would expose 5837.25 next, the Mar 25 high and a bull trigger. It is still possible that the entire rally since Apr 7 is a correction. A reversal lower would signal the end of this corrective phase and expose initially, support at 5127.25, the Apr 21 low. First support to watch is 5527.21, the 20-day EMA.
EQUITIES: EU Bank Block Trade
May-06 13:48
Large EU Bank Block trade, suggest seller:
- CAM5 8k at 186.00.
