UK: BOE: Instant Answer questions for Sept 18 meeting

Sep-18 06:28
Below are the September IA Questions, with answers due at midday.
 
1.    Was the Bank Rate changed, and if so by how much?
2.    Number of members voting for unchanged rate?
3.    Number of members voting for 25bp cut?
4.    Number of members voting for 50bp cut?
5.    Did the MPC keep reference to a “gradual approach” in its guidance?
6.    Did the MPC keep reference to “careful” in its guidance?
7.    Did the MPC again say “The restrictiveness of monetary policy has fallen as Bank Rate has been reduced?”
8.    Did the MPC again say “The timing and pace of future reductions in the restrictiveness of policy will depend on the extent to which underlying disinflationary pressures continue to ease?”
9.    Did the MPC leave its guidance paragraph materially unchanged versus the previous policy statement?
10.    What did the MPC say the total target APF reduction will be in upcoming Oct-Sep period (passive plus active)?
11.    Was the APF decision unanimous? (If not dissenters named)
12.    Did the MPC indicate in the policy statement that active sales would not be evenly split between their previous maturity buckets?

Historical bullets

GOLD TECHS: Trading In A Range

Aug-19 06:26
  • RES 4: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
  • RES 3: $3500.1 - High Apr 22 and bull trigger
  • RES 2: $3451.3 - High Jun 16  
  • RES 1: $3409.2/3439.0 - High Aug 8 / 23             
  • PRICE: $3336.7 @ 07:25 BST Aug 19
  • SUP 1: $3268.2 - Low Jul 30 
  • SUP 2: $3248.7 - Low Jun 30 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 3: $3204.7 - Low May 20
  • SUP 4: $3121.0 - Low May 15 and key support 

A bull cycle in Gold remains intact and this is highlighted by moving average studies that remain in a bull-mode position. The sideways trend that has been in place since the Apr peak appears to be a corrective phase - a pause in the uptrend. A resumption of gains would open $3439.0, the Aug 23 high. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at $3500.1, the Apr 22 low. On the downside, first support to watch lies at $3268.2, the Jul 30 low.

BUNDS: The Yield resistance holds

Aug-19 06:20
  • There's very little change for Bund going into the European session, the 2.80% Yield level has again held Yesterday, after also holding on Friday.
  • As such, the initial support in Bund remains unchanged at around 128.57, printed a 128.64 low in Futures and a 2.791% high in Yield on Friday.
  • Small resistance is at 129.18, followed by 129.62.
  • There are no Tier 1 Data out of Europe, and the Canadian CPI will be the only notable release for North America Today.
  • Main Focus this Week is on the UK CPI (wed), PMIs (thu), Japan CPI, and all eyes on Powell (fri).
  • SUPPLY: UK £1.6bn 2035 Linkers (won't impact Gilts). Germany €4.5bn 5yr Bobl (equates to 42k Bobl) should weigh into the Bidding Deadline.
  • SPEAKERS: Fed Bowman (x2).

BRENT TECHS: (V5) Support Remains Exposed

Aug-19 06:20
  • RES 4: $81.07 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
  • RES 3: $79.86 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
  • RES 2: $77.73 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger 
  • RES 1: $72.83 - High Jul 30 and a key resistance 
  • PRICE: $66.30 @ 07:09 BST Aug 19
  • SUP 1: $65.01 - Low Aug 13
  • SUP 2: $60.96 - Low May 30
  • SUP 3: $58.18 - Low May 5
  • SUP 4: $57.74 - Low Apr 9 and a key support   

Brent futures remain in a bear cycle and the contract is trading closer to its recent lows. Sights are on $65.01, the Aug 13 low, where a clear break would confirm a resumption of the bear leg and pave the way for an extension lower. A clear breach would open $60.96, the May 30 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $72.83, the Jul 30 high. Clearance of this level would cancel a bear theme.